Well, ok....., i'll play. Though the limb that i'll crawl out on right now will remain a rather short 60hr. one.
Overnight this evening ( Fri ), we'll see "ex-02" maintain its overall structure, and continue to fight off slowly ( and slightly decreasing ) easterly shear. Banding features to become a little more distinct. Tomorrow ( Sat. ) will see even less westerly displacement of convection, and getting close to reclassification to depression #2. With loss of sunlight, and perhaps waning diurnal convection...., NHC will hold back from "pulling the trigger" and await first vis. satellite on Sunday a.m. Bursting pattern and lessening shear will lead to system being upgraded right to T.S. on Sunday.
Meanwhile 90L, which despite strong easterly shear, continues to organize and despite some dry air being entrained by its own large envelope system, will continue to organize slowly overnight. Tomorrow ( Sat. ), organization will be evident, but outside of cycles of convective bursting, most convection will be within banding features. NHC ponders consideration to upgrade to depression #3 during the day, but holds off. During Sat. evening, maintained banded convection near the center along with surface ship reports reporting seagulls off the starboard bow - flying backwards. Though the 8:00pm T.W.O. just released, Ships report prompts late evening Special Tropical Advisory & NHC upgrade 90L to Depression #3.
First visable satellite prompts immediate decision to upgrade both systems to Tropical Storm strength, however decision must first be made which name ( Ana or Bill ) to be tagged, to which storm. That, and given persistant 90L HWRF/GFDL intensity forecasts, which name would they prefer to retire given the choice.
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Re: 90L Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models
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