MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Tropical Storm Bill Forms from TD#3, 91L in Gulf
Sat Aug 15 2009 07:30 AM
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2:00 AM Update 16 August 2009
91L is likely to develop sometime today, it is now at a "code red" with >50% chance for development. It is possible to have a TD or TS out of this, but not much more. However a strengthening system in the Gulf is never a good thing, even a weaker one, along the coast.
Those along the Florida Gulf coast/Panhandle will want to watch this one, it could cause some surge along the coast even if the winds aren't all that much.
The system is moving Generally north or just west of north around 15MPH. The water temperatures in the Gulf are well above normal this year, and there is plenty of fuel to spark this if it gets going.
It has the potential to be a surprise to a lot of the Florida Gulf coast tomorrow with a potential Tropical Storm Warning.
Southeastern US Radar Mosaic
{{radarlink|tbw|Tampa Bay, FL Radar}}
{{radarlink|byx|Key West, FL Radar}}
{{radarlink|amx|Miami FL Radar}}
{{radarlink|amx|Melbourne FL Radar}}
{{radarlink|tlh|Tallahassee FL Radar}}
{{radarlink|evx|Northwest Florida Radar}}
Long Term Radar Recording of 91L approach to Panhandle
11:00 PM Update 15 August 2009
Ana appears it may go south of Florida, and may stay weak or even weaken some.
Still there are tropical Storm Watches out for parts of the Leewards, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.
Bill's models are trending toward the possibility of staying away from the mainland United States, but its not guaranteed yet. It needs to gain latitude first, and it may move more westward if it stays weaker.
91L in the Gulf looks impressive now but lacks some key components (most notably low level circulation and convection) to make it a Tropical Cyclone. It may become something weak over time, but right now it's just something to watch.
Hopefully these trends continue into next morning.
9:45 PM Update 15 August 2009
The wave/area in the Gulf (was near the Keys) is now being tracked as invest 91L, due to its proximity it should be watched very closely, however right now it still has <30% chance of development as it likely won't be over water long enough to develop.
5:00 PM Update 15 August 2009
The second named storm of the season forms on August 15th from TD#3.
Tropical Storm Watches are now up for the Netherlands Antilles, these include
St. Maarten, Saba, and St. Eustatius.
The wave off Africa may become something within the next day or two as well. No official invests are up for it, however.
2:45 PM Update 15 August 2009
Tropical Depression 3 has formed from what was 90L, and Ana Holds as a low end Tropical Storm.
Ana is moving west, ahead of Ana is a bit of westerly shear, this is taking some of the moisture north and west of it, and also is clearing the dry air for TD#3 behind it. The center is also exposed again. Ana and TD#3 appear to "touch" with the outflow on the visible satellite.
Ana will probably remain weak while the shear affects it. From studying the water vapor and some model runs, it looks like Ana will be more on the southerly side of the forecast cone. This means that it will likely move over the Caribbean islands, giving them lots of rain and some wind, but at the same time prevent it from strengthening. With the dry air, shear, and "grasping" aspect of TD#3 which may catch up to it, Ana may very well fall apart again.
That said the most likely future for Ana is a weak tropical storm, how weak depends on how much interaction it has with the Caribbean islands. It appears, right now, that it'll go south of south Florida, barely. If it weakens much more it may go much further south and west (more on the southern cusp of the cone). If it were to err, I think the NHC may be too far north. Still the uncertainty exists, and I think the cone in general is valid. Intensity completely depends on how well Ana fights the shear and the interaction with land.
Those in South Florida/Keys will want to watch and be ready. There is a good, but not great, chance that they may have some affect from the system. The small size and complex situation make it difficult to predict. I'm not very confident about it right now.
Other indicators for Ana, include changes in the forward motion of TD#3, the location of the Upper Level Low near the Bahamas, and the wave off the Florida Keys (Which itself may be worth watching as it moves into the very soup hot Gulf) Ana is also elongated slightly north/south.
In short keep watch, Ana may well stay south of Florida (southern part of the cone). Those in the Leewards will still want to prepare for a Tropical Storm (Which is to say expect a windy nasty day). Ana is a small storm so if conditions around it change, it could wind up quickly. It will be vital to watch it over the next several days.
TD#3 right now has the better chance to be slightly northward in the Islands. The cone for this one is dead on, I think. Right now somewhere along the east coast is the most likely spot for TD#3.
The wave now coming off Africa may be yet another storm to watch in the next several days.
Original Update
August 15 usually starts up the true peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season, and this year it happens to be the date the first named storm has formed. Really. Tropical Storm Ana has formed in the Central Atlantic. Heading westward at 16MPH roughly with 40MPH winds.
The good news it's forecast to remain a Tropical Storm throughout the period, and may encounter some westerly shear.
The bad news is that it's heading toward the Leeward Islands, near or over Puerto Rico, into the Bahamas and the edge of the 5 day cone is in Florida. And the system is small and there is some uncertainty with the intensity model. Some models weaken it (like the GFDL), and this would force it more west, But others, such as the HWRF show in becoming a category 2 hurricane. Thus the National Hurricane Center's forecast, at least for 3 days seems good. Beyond that it really could be anywhere in the cone. The relatively small size of the storm will make it very difficult to predict the intensity of the storm, in fact the National Hurricane Center in the discussion has indicated that their current forecast is very uncertain intensity wise and may be on the conservative side.
Those in the Leeward islands of the Caribbean may expect a Tropical Storm Watch later. Those in the east coast of Florida and the rest of the cone will want to keep a very close eye on Ana during the week.
Discuss models and where you think it may go/how strong in the Ana Lounge.
90L also has a very good chance of forming today, advisories on it may start as early as 11AM today.
The wave south of Florida is also worth watching as it moves into the Gulf.
In short this week will be very busy.
[Southeastern US Radar Mosaic
{{radarlink|tbw|Tampa Bay, FL Radar}}
{{radarlink|byx|Key West, FL Radar}}
{{radarlink|amx|Miami FL Radar}}
{{radarlink|amx|Melbourne FL Radar}}
{{radarlink|tlh|Tallahassee FL Radar}}
{{radarlink|evx|Northwest Florida Radar}}
Long Term Radar Recording of 91L approach to Panhandle
Event Related Links
Emergency Management
FloridaDisaster.org - Florida Emergency Management
Individual Florida County Emergency Management Websites
Webcams, Video, Audio
WJHG 7 the NBC Affiliate in Panama City Beach, FL - CFHC contributor Jason Kelly broadcasts from here.
WMBB - Panama City Beach, FL
WEAR ABC 3 in Pensacola
NBC 15 / Mobile/Pensacola
Mark Sudduth's Hurricanetrack.com
{{StormCarib}}
{{StormLinks|Ana|02|2|2009|1|Ana}}
{{StormLinks|Bill|03|3|2009|2|Bill}}
Note: Waiting for Skeetobite to update the 91L Graphic, it is showing an older 91L Currently, click the SFWMD link for newer models
{{StormLinks|91L|91|4|2009|3|Invest 91L}}
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