MikeC
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Reged: Sun
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Bill a Classic Hurricane, Still Most likely to Stay Out to Sea
Mon Aug 17 2009 06:43 AM
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9:15PM EDT Update 18 Aug 2009
Aircraft recon has found 125MPH sustained winds, and a low pressure. This makes Bill the first Major hurricane of 2009.
The National Hurricane Center put out a special update to report this and the 11PM advisory will likely reflect that.
6:10PM EDT Update 18 Aug 2009
Hurricane Bill is a strong Category 2 Hurricane and may become a Major Hurricane (Cat 3) later tonight. Aircraft recon recently found a pressure of 958mb, down some from earlier.
Thankfully, the forecast keeps it away from the Leeward Islands and the US Mainland, Bermuda and the Canadian Maratimes may have to deal with the storm later.
Bill is moving West-Northwest currently and the National Hurricane Center seems to have a solid bearing on the track. It will likely begin to slowly move more northward over time and curve away from the Southeast Coastline.
I've been looking for valid reasons to discount the forecast and really haven't found any. Admire the storm from afar and be glad it is not forecast to landfall like it is. We'll keep watch, but confidence it will stay away from the US Mainland is high.
The remnants of Ana are around the northern coast of Cuba, they are still worth watching to see if anything comes of it. There is a <30% chance that it will redevelop, or a new low will form out of the area.
8:15AM EDT Update 18 Aug 2009
Hurricane Bill may become a Category 3 hurricane later today, as it moves west northwest and eventually more northwest today.
Looking over projected conditions and water vapor imagery it appears that Bill will be drawn more poleward (elongated N/S) soon, and the models are tightly packed for a recurve scenario. There is plenty of model support for this. So thankfully, still this morning, Bill looks most likely to not affect any mainland areas (with the possible exception of the Canadian maratimes as a weaker system)
For Bermuda, things are less clear. Those in Bermuda will want to keep a close eye on Bill.
We'll keep watch in case this changes, but there is currently nothing to suggest that.
It looks like the remnants of Ana will enhance rainfall in Florida, Wednesday night into Thursday. A very low chance of any reformation <30%, exists.
{{radarlink|byx|Key West Florida}}
{{radarlink|amx|Miami Florida}}
4:45PM EDT Update 17 Aug 2009
Ana's last advisory was just issued at 5PM, it is now an open wave. It may bring rain to us in Florida Wednesday night or so, but reformation isn't all that likely.
Hurricane Bill has maintained 90mph winds, and is moving northwest. Other than Bermuda, it poses no threat to land.
The remains of Claudette has slowed in forward motion and is dumping a lot of rain along the Panhandle and Alabama.
Original Update
Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall on the east end of Santa Rosa Island around 12:10AMCDT (1:10AM EDT). It never got stronger than a 50mph Tropical Storm and pressures never really dropped all that much for the storm. It will be a rain even for those in Alabama, Mississippi and western Tennessee.
Bill has become the first Hurricane of the 2009 season, yet is still looking like no threat to land with the possible exception of Bermuda. Those in Bermuda would be wise to keep track of Bill over the next several days It is expected to strengthen to a Major Hurricane. One model outlier is the UKMet which takes it further west (but still away from land, it traces the western edge of the cone)
. Ana may be an open wave, the National Hurricane Center is considering dropping advisories on it again, but they are waiting until a few visible satellite images are ready. It is currently moveing west northwest in the eastern Caribbean, south of Puerto Rico.
{{radarlink|evx|Northwest Florida Radar}}
{{radarlink|jua|San Juan, Puerto Rico Radar}}
The remnants will likely go over land of the Major Antilles and enter the straights of Florida, but as a remnant low assuming Hispaniola does not destroy it. At that point conditions won't be the best for any type of reformation, and it could just bring an enhancement to rain. If it does hold together it may be a little stronger, but the upper level low ahead of it probably will keep it in check.
East of Bill is another wave, but it's not very organized at the moment.
{{StormCarib}}
{{StormLinks|Ana|02|2|2009|1|Ana}}
{{StormLinks|Bill|03|3|2009|2|Bill}}
{{StormLinks|Claudette|04|4|2009|3|Claudette}}
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