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Erika Falls Apart
      Thu Sep 03 2009 07:12 AM

2PM EDT 4 September 2009 Update
95L is now being tracked in the Eastern Atlantic, 30-50% chance of development in the next 48 hours, but there doesn't seem to be that great of model initialization on it yet.
6:30AM 4 September 2009 Update
At 11PM last night the National Hurricane Center discontinued advisories on Erika, as it has weakened to an open wave.

It will continue to be monitored for any signs of reorganization, as there is still some convection associated with it, it fact a good area near the old center formed overnight.

Another wave in the east Atlantic is being monitored as well, it has no investigation number as of yet, and has a <30% chance of formation in the next 48 hours.


6:30PM Update
Erika has weakened to a depression, the main low level circulation racing away from the convection. The NHC forecasts it to dissipate as it nears Hispaniola now, bringing heavy rainfall to the area.

Even though it is most likely to fall apart, much of the convection to the east remains. We'll continue to watch for any signs of re-organization.

Original Update
Tropical Storm Erika remains in the northeastern Caribbean, moving slowly toward the west northwest. The current forecast track now takes it right over Puerto Rico, but it will mostly be a rain event for the island. It may be downgraded before it gets to Puerto Rico.

After that it is expected to slide into the Bahamas, but also run into heavy shear, which the National hurricane center is forecasting to weaken it further into an open wave. The remnants of the wave may wind up in Florida, bringing us rain mid next week.



There are still some uncertainties with the storm, so it will have to be monitored, particularly if it slows down even more.

There is quite a bit of convection across the Leewards right now, I'm sure a few places will see flash floods, places like Montserrat are a bit vulnerable to that. But overall Erika seems to be on the weakening trend. It would be foolish to take attention off of it now, however, at least until the main convection dies down. Especially since some modes still insist on intensification and the still general slow westward motion.

It's really down to which factors are more important, dry air, shear, vs steering and massive convection, computer models against old fashioned forecasting. Erika is still very interesting, and even though the dissipation scenario is most likely, it is by no means definite.

Martinique Radar
Flhurricane Recording of Martinique Radar/Erika Approach
{{radarlink|jua|San Juan, Puerto Rico}}
{{StormCarib}}
{{StormLinks|Invest 95L|95|7|2009|1|Invest 95L}}


Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri Sep 04 2009 08:43 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Erika Falls Apart MikeCAdministrator Thu Sep 03 2009 07:12 AM
. * * Re: RIP - Erika MichaelA   Fri Sep 04 2009 05:54 PM
. * * RIP - Erika Lamar-Plant City   Fri Sep 04 2009 05:08 PM
. * * Re: E Caribbean Robert   Fri Sep 04 2009 05:07 PM
. * * Re: E Caribbean doug   Fri Sep 04 2009 03:57 PM
. * * Re: E Caribbean MikeCAdministrator   Fri Sep 04 2009 02:34 PM
. * * Re: E Caribbean MichaelA   Fri Sep 04 2009 12:13 PM
. * * Re: E Caribbean weathernet   Fri Sep 04 2009 11:05 AM
. * * Re: E Caribbean LoisCane   Fri Sep 04 2009 09:27 AM
. * * Re: E Caribbean Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Sep 04 2009 07:18 AM
. * * Re: E Caribbean OrlandoDan   Fri Sep 04 2009 06:43 AM
. * * Re: E Caribbean Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Sep 04 2009 06:36 AM
. * * Re: E Caribbean OrlandoDan   Fri Sep 04 2009 05:58 AM
. * * E Caribbean danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 04 2009 05:00 AM
. * * Re: Martinique radar craigm   Thu Sep 03 2009 08:02 PM
. * * Re: Martinique radar MikeCAdministrator   Thu Sep 03 2009 07:08 PM
. * * Martinique radar Robert   Thu Sep 03 2009 07:03 PM
. * * Re: 03/20Z - Tropical Depression Erika? craigm   Thu Sep 03 2009 06:32 PM
. * * Re: 03/20Z - Tropical Depression Erika? Clark   Thu Sep 03 2009 06:00 PM
. * * Re: 03/20Z - Tropical Depression Erika? berrywr   Thu Sep 03 2009 04:58 PM
. * * Re: Weak Erika Slowly Moving Toward Puerto Rico berrywr   Thu Sep 03 2009 04:41 PM
. * * Re: 03/20Z - Tropical Depression Erika? Ed in Va   Thu Sep 03 2009 04:39 PM
. * * 03/20Z - Tropical Depression Erika? berrywr   Thu Sep 03 2009 04:27 PM
. * * Re: Weak Erika Slowly Moving Toward Puerto Rico hogrunr   Thu Sep 03 2009 04:01 PM
. * * Re: Weak Erika Slowly Moving Toward Puerto Rico scottsvb   Thu Sep 03 2009 03:59 PM
. * * Re: Weak Erika Slowly Moving Toward Puerto Rico hogrunr   Thu Sep 03 2009 03:56 PM
. * * Re: Weak Erika Slowly Moving Toward Puerto Rico scottsvb   Thu Sep 03 2009 03:50 PM
. * * Re: Weak Erika Slowly Moving Toward Puerto Rico MikeCAdministrator   Thu Sep 03 2009 02:51 PM
. * * Re: Weak Erika Slowly Moving Toward Puerto Rico hogrunr   Thu Sep 03 2009 02:42 PM
. * * Re: Weak Erika Slowly Moving Toward Puerto Rico doug   Thu Sep 03 2009 02:09 PM
. * * Re: Weak Erika Slowly Moving Toward Puerto Rico Clark   Thu Sep 03 2009 01:01 PM
. * * Re: Weak Erika Slowly Moving Toward Puerto Rico OrlandoDan   Thu Sep 03 2009 12:11 PM
. * * Re: Weak Erika Slowly Moving Toward Puerto Rico MikeCAdministrator   Thu Sep 03 2009 12:00 PM
. * * Re: Weak Erika Slowly Moving Toward Puerto Rico hogrunr   Thu Sep 03 2009 12:00 PM
. * * Re: Weak Erika Slowly Moving Toward Puerto Rico OrlandoDan   Thu Sep 03 2009 11:11 AM
. * * Re: Weak Erika Slowly Moving Toward Puerto Rico berrywr   Thu Sep 03 2009 11:00 AM
. * * Re: Weak Erika Slowly Moving Toward Puerto Rico weathernet   Thu Sep 03 2009 09:19 AM
. * * Re: Weak Erika Slowly Moving Toward Puerto Rico craigm   Thu Sep 03 2009 07:45 AM

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