This also seems to be one of those cases where the NHC keeps showing the storm being forcast to move NW over the next 24 hours, but the storm hasn't gotten the message yet. It still seems to be moving mostly dead west at this point. I know it is hard to know where any LLC is moving under that cloud of convection, but the whole convective cloud still appears to be moving primarily west. Trying to track any of the many vortices that keep spinning out from under the thing is also a measure of futility. I am beginning to believe that most of it may pass SOUTH of Puerto Rico. It has been south and west of the 'average' guidance all along, so I am thinking this trend may put it on a collision course more with Hispanola than P.R. I also don't see it disippating until the convection begins to spread out and not be so tightly clumped. This could happen if it goes over Hispanola. Going to be an interesting 48 hours.
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Re: Erika Lounge. Where do you think it Will go?
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