CoconutCandy
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Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii
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El Nino Strengthens, Expected Well Into 2010
Thu Oct 01 2009 04:10 AM
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A moderately strong El Nino year continues in evidence with a VERY Warm Western Pacific Basin, which extends right across the International Dateline and well into the Central Pacific and beyond.
A few recent links pertaining to the currently strengthening El Nino and it's possible effects for the winter season 2009-2010 ...
El Nino Update: 37 Page PDF File from Climate Prediction Center Issued September 28th
Reuters: N O A A sees El Nino strengthening through 2009
Science Daily: Floundering El Ninos Make For Fickle Forecasts
(Posted just a few days ago, excellent article with many great links and a very useful sidebar to related information. Treat yourself!)
In the following graphic note Hawaii, top center, and also note the ever-expanding area of very warm water as it 'pulsates' in the Western Pacific, and especially note the expanding 'tounge' of warm water surging into the Central Pacific and the western portions of the Eastern Pacific.
And! Also note the warmer isotherms continually working their way towards the Hawaiian Islands, so that the 27C Isotherm is 'spilling over' these Islands from the WSW. Other SST Charts (see the graphic below showing the Central Pacific SST's) depict the 27C isotherm already well ENE of the Islands. This only occurs during El Nino 'events', as usually the 27C 'borderline' lies well WSW of the Hawaiian Islands.
..............
Finally, notice the infamous 27C Isotherm, slowly but surely, edging it's way northwards along the entire length of both the Central and Eastern Pacific Basins.
So, despite the recent Autumn Equinox and shorter days and the sun starting to head south of the border, El Nino conditions continue to strengthen and apparently will be with us through the coming '09-'10 Northern Hemisphere Winter Season, along with the elevated SST's here in the Central Pacific, as shown clearly in the following graphic.
Notice too, the *dramatic sharp northward turn*, almost at a right angle, of the 27C isotherm, certainly an glaring indication of El Nino roaring it's ugly head! 
What this means for the Central Pacific Storm Basin (and the Hawaiian Islands) will be a continuing active storm season.
We've already had Tropical Storms 'Lana' and 'Maka', as well as Cat 4 Hurricane 'Felicia' (coming in from the Eastern Pacific) and a number of lesser EastPac Storms already this season either form in or enter into the CenPac from the EastPac, as well as a *large* number of 'promising looking disturbances' and/or Invests here in the Central Pacific that never quite made it to Depression status for various reasons.
In most basins, October and November usually produces fewer and fewer named storms. However! In 'El Nino Years', at least for the Central Pacific Basin, October and November and even December(!) can continue to be *quite active*, even more active in some years than the months of August and September, if you can believe that!
Hurricane 'Iwa' (Nov. '82) which made landfall directly over Kauai as a Cat 1, ocurred a week or so before Thanksgiving. (Hurricane Iniki, which devastated Kauai in '92 as a Cat 4, also occured during an El Nino year, but in August, mere weeks after Hurricane Andrew obliterated South Dade.)
And Hurricane 'Paka' formed in the Central Pacific, well SW of Hawaii in December during an El Nino event in 1997, and went on to become SuperTyphoon 'Paka' and roared directly across Guam a week or so before Christmas!
Typhoon Paka Page From Wikipedia
Super Typhoon Paka Gusts over Guam was recorded at 236 mph
Supertyphoon Paka Hits Guam
(Good article with lots of graphics and links to other information and sources)
Wapedia Wiki: Typhoon Paka
(Great article with extensive meteorological analysis and Guam and the Mariana's preparation and response during and following passage.
Spectacular Photo of Supertyphoon Paka at Peak Intensity
(Click link below the photo to view in awesome Full Resolution)
SUPER TYPHOON PAKA (9 Page PDF File from the 1997 Annual Typhoon Report)
Extensive meteorological analysis from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). Excellent analysis and discussion and profusely illustrated as well. Highly recommended!
So, all in all, we in Hawaii here have to be very vigilant right on through the end of the year, especially for tropical cyclones that form to our SW and then recurve, shortly after forming and strengthening, right towards the Islands. 
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Also as a point of topic, notice from just the last two frames of the above SST animation, the weeks comparing Sept. 16th and Sept. 23rd.
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It looks like autumn equinox is in evidence, as the 27C isotherm appears to be *retreating* everywhere except in two main areas, where it is 'expanding':
1) towards Australia's Queensland Coastline and the area north of Australia's Northern coast, a breeding ground for cyclones, and the South Pacific in general, west of 150W (seasonal and climatic, as the Southern Hemisphere is now entering their Spring Season)
and ...
2) in Hawaiian waters and waters WNW of the Hawaiian Islands going towards the Dateline (anomalous and indicative of the active phase of El Nino). (See the 2nd map, above, and associated discussion for more on this.)
Also of interest, note the *warming* of the Gulf of Mexico  , the waters adjacent to both Florida coastlines and the entire Western Caribbean area in general, with many areas currently at least 29C to an incredible sizzling 30C !!
Better hope for El Nino to keep supplying those generally shearing winds in the Atlantic Basin, thus keeping the 'canes at bay, especially that portion closest to the CONUS, as any late-season hurricane would have considerable oceanic heat content to draw on, and could easily strengthen rapidly into a Major Hurricane. 
I strongly recommend all interested mainlanders (especially all of you in Florida and all along the Gulf coast) to remain vigilant. Even though it's thankfully been a slow year hurricane-wise, remember the adage that it only takes 1 to turn your life upside down.
While I'll be expanding this post in the coming days, everyone else is also encouraged to add their thoughts regarding the steadily strengthening El Nino event now in progress.
Edited by CoconutCandy (Thu Oct 01 2009 12:40 PM)
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