I am not liking the evolution of the models. I think I am going to play it safe and do a mini-kit stock for extended power outage (12 - 24 hours). Too many trees near powerlines around me. It is just too complex of a pattern for me to have confidence that it won't be gusty and nasty where I am. What I worry about most is Ida building more strength than is currently forecast while near Cuba and then getting caught up and drawn north at a much faster pace and having more energy at landfall somewhere in the Florida Panhandle.
I'm not sure that is the likely scenario. Probably what I would call the worst-case scenario and, therefore, the scenario I plan for. I would say this storm bears heavy watching for interests from New Orleans area to the SW Florida coast with primary concern being Biloxi to Tampa, especially coastal. A faster move will prevent heavy coastal flooding. But the current NHC forecast would be very rough for the Panhandle down to Tampa Bay if it happens. I still think the worst case is a hit at marginal hurricane strength. Most likely seems to be a system with medium TS force winds transitioning to extratropical. I think the interaction with the system in the Bay of Campechee is also a fly in the ointment over the next few days. This one will test the skills of the forecasters at NHC.
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Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf
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