In (Pacific) Hurricane Darby's discussion this morning is the following:
THE TRACK FORECAST IS HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. NEARLY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM BY THE TIME IT GETS TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS...AND THESE MODELS STALL DARBY BY DAY 2 FOLLOWED BY A NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION ON DAYS 4 AND 5...MOST NOTABLY INDICATED BY THE ECMWF AND UKMET. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GENERAL PATTERN...BUT DOES NOT INDICATE A POSITION AS FAR TO THE EAST ON DAY 5 AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN...WHICH IS BEING INFLUENCED BY THE ECMWF AND UKMET OUTLIERS. ON ANOTHER NOTE...THE GFS SHOWS ALMOST NO DEVELOPMENT OF THE CARIBBEAN LOW AND THEREFORE KEEPS DARBY ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RATHER HELTER-SKELTER GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. ESSENTIALLY...THE STRONGER THE CARIBBEAN LOW GETS WHILE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE FARTHER TO THE EAST DARBY COULD BE LOCATED BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
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