MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Tropical Depression Two Forms in Gulf of Mexico
Mon Jul 05 2010 08:03 AM
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11PM EDT 7 July 2010 Update
The second Tropical Depression of 2010 forms, landfall in northern Mexico expected tomorrow evening.
Tropical Storm Warnings from Baffin Bay, TX southward to San Fernando in Mexico. Warnings were issued since there is a chance it could become a Tropical Storm tomorrow. If it were to be named, it would be called Bonnie. There is a fair chance it will not strengthen into a tropical storm also.
This will primarily be another rainfall event for South Texas as well, on top of what they got last week from Alex.
8:30PM EDT 7 July 2010 Update
{{TexasGulfRadar}}
{{NorthGulfRadar}}
Cameron County Texas, Scanner Audio Feed (Police/Fire/EMT) -- Brownsville Area
Cameron County, TX Emergency Operations Center
Southeast Texas Power Outage Map
Weather Observations:
Corpus Christi, Texas
Kingsville NAS, Texas
Harlingen, Texas
Brownsville, Texas
Matamoros, Mexico
Ciudad Victoria, Mexico
Tampico, Mexico
Local Media:
Brownsville Herald
The Monitor
South Padre Island Breeze
Valley Morning Star
KGBT 4 News
KRGV Newschannel 5
KVEO News Channel 23
KURV 710 News/Talk Radio
{{StormCarib}}
{{StormLinks|TD#2|02|2|2010|2|TD#2}}
3PM EDT 7 July 2010 Update
Chances for development have gone up since this morning, as the wave in the gulf (96L) looks better organized this afternoon. If it does develop it will likely be tomorrow, and the most likely landfall point is in northern Mexico. It is likely to remain weak, even if it becomes a depression.
7AM EDT 7 July 2010 Update
The wave being tracked over the last few days is now in the Gulf, and chances for development are (as of 2AM) 40%, but it appears most likely it will not develop, at least not today. Convection did not refire overnight and it is very ragged appearing on satellite imagery.
The recon flight scheduled for today is likely to be canceled.
Things in favor of development is that it now has a low level circulation, a bit large or broad, but it's there.
The most likely outcome from 96L is some more rain in areas that already had seen a lot from Alex. It's likely to come ashore around northern Mexico/South Texas, probably as a wave or depression, but nothing much more than that. Conditions in the tropics right now are relatively hostile for development in general.
The wave still should be watched in case any organization changes happen, but odds are against it. If it were to develop, Thursday afternoon/evening would be the most likely time.
Nothing else in the basin has a shot at development for the next few days, longer term there is a wave off Africa that may be worth watching to see if it persists, but it's still a bit too early to expect things out there.
7AM EDT 6 July 2010 Update
The low in the Gulf moved ashore last night and is bringing rainfall and some winds to a small area in Louisiana.
The wave in the west Caribbean (96L) has not really organized overnight, and there appears to be no closed low level circulation. So 30% is still about right for that. It's very likely that the recon flight scheduled for today will be canceled. It is still worth watching for later in the week, however.
Shear is really affecting this system, and it will struggle to get wrapped into a symmetrical circulation. That and the upper level low to the west and trough to the east will also keep overall development chances low. If it does develop, look toward the end of the week.
Still those in Mexico and Texas will want to watch this for any signs of development, especially once it is in the Gulf of Mexico.
Most likely it is a rainmaker for Texas and nothing more.
Cancun Radar Recording of 96L approach
The other areas being tracked have all fallen apart. The eastern Caribbean wave is near Puerto Rico now, and other than the ones mentioned there is a reprieve in Tropical Activity.
7PM EDT 5 July 2010 Update
The low in the gulf (95L) is approaching land and has suddenly spun up again, and has a 60% chance of potential to become a depression or Tropical storm before landfall. Currently no Tropical Storm Watches/Warnings are up. This small system did something similar yesterday, where it spun up relatively quickly and then went down again.
Radar from the area ({{radarlink|lix|New Orleans, LA Radar}}) is showing it still offshore.
Original Update
The National Hurricane Center's tropical weather outlook has 3 areas to watch.
The first area, 95L in the Gulf, is a very small low pressure area that, for a bit yesterday, spun up quite a bit. Even though in all likelihood nothing will ever develop out of the system, it still needs to be watched because it is so small and so close to land. It has the potential to spin up very quickly because of the small size, but more likely to spin out/down ever faster. Conditions around it favor no development.
The second area being tracked is the tropical wave (96L) in the Western Caribbean. It has the best chance,currently, of all the areas to develop, but looks to remain on the weaker side. Looking at satellite imagery this morning it is not looking that great. It is on the edge of a shear zone, and it has ok outflow, but it hasn't really persisted enough. It still has a fairly high chance of development, but just not today. If this one develops, it is most likely going to stay weak. It is bringing rainfall to the Caymans and the Yucatan.
With 96L being a weaker system it implies a more westerly move, but the overall patter is less so than it was for Alex. Recon was scheduled to go out to the system today, but it was canceled because of how poorly organized it looks this morning. They may try again tomorrow.
The final wave is in the east Caribbean which may be worth watching later in the week when it arrives in the western side, but until then it'll just be watched.
The area northeast of the Bahamas is now off the list.
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