Vigorous W Caribbean Disturbance

A vigorous disturbance (see attached image) in the western Caribbean is making its way west towards Nicaragua this evening. Scatterometer estimates of wind speed associated with this area of disturbed weather indicate gusts in excess of 30-40 knots were occurring earlier today, and most recent visible and enhanced satellite images reveal perhaps a near-surface to surface circulation developing, or perhaps now underway.

At the time of this post, the approximate center of this disturbance was located roughly in the vicinity of 12N 81W, and moving roughly west, towards Nicaragua. At its forward rate of movement, it could start bringing blustery weather and very heavy rain to central America by late overnight tonight/Saturday morning.

While not yet identified as an official Invest, this feature could still organize further before running into land. Environmental conditions in its path are not prohibitive, but the amount of time left over water could be.

Update as of 8PM EDT, NHC has added this feature in its latest TWO. At this time, NHC is giving it a near 0% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours: 1. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT AROUND 20 MPH. WHILE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT
EXPECTED BEFORE THIS SYSTEM REACHES CENTRAL AMERICA...HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE REFER TO
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

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