Possible Tropical Activity near FL next Monday, Aug 23.

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1122 AM EDT FRI AUG 20 2010

POTENTIALLY CONVECTIVE LOW RETROGRADING SOUTHWEST THROUGH FLORIDA
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...PREFERENCE FOR THE 00Z
ECMWF/CANADIAN/GEFS ENSEMBLE LOW CLUSTERED TRACK
THE NAM HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD/OCCASIONALLY STRONGER WITH THIS
SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY
WEAKER/MORE NORTHWARD WITH THE SURFACE LOW OVER ITS PAST DAY OF
RUNS...WHILE ITS CONVECTIVE VORTICITY PATTERN AT 500 HPA WITH THIS
SYSTEM INDICATES A NORTHEAST TREND. THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS
HAVING DIFFICULTY SHOWING THIS SYSTEM IN THE PRESSURE
PATTERN...EVEN THOUGH THE 00Z MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS
NOT. THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A LOW MOVING TO NEAR
JACKSONVILLE SATURDAY EVENING AND NEAR THE GULF COAST OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY TO JUST OFFSHORE MOBILE
ALABAMA MONDAY EVENING. THIS SOLUTION DOES NOT QUITE RESEMBLE ANY
OF THE CURRENT DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND IS SOMEWHAT SOUTH OF
MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUITY...THOUGH IT IS PREFERRED DUE TO MULTI-DAY
CONTINUITY OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ON THIS TYPE OF A TRACK. THE
16Z COORDINATION CALL WITH NHC MAY SHED ADDITIONAL LIGHT ON
PREFERRED TRACK.

( Nothing wrong with this post. It was moved because The Tropics Today Forum is for existing features - and in this case the low hasn't developed yet.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri Aug 20 2010 06:05 PM)

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