MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Fiona Forms, Earl Now Cat 4, North of the Virgin Islands
Sun Aug 29 2010 07:30 AM
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4:45 PM EDT Monday, 30 August 2010 Update
Tropical Storm Fiona Has Formed. Odds are likely it will stay out to sea, but it will be a close call and will be worth watching.
Hurricane Earl has strengthened into a Category 4 hurricane north of the islands. Carolinas Northward should watch Earl closely.
More to come on both later.
{{StormCarib}}
St. Maarten Webcam - flhurricane recording of this cam
St. Maarten Radar
{{StormLinks|Danielle|06|6|2010|1|Danielle}}
{{StormLinks|Earl|07|7|2010|2|Earl}}
{{StormLinks|Fiona|08|8|2010|3|Fiona}}
4:30 PM EDT Monday, 30 August 2010 Update
It appears the wave in the central Atlantic (97L) may be forming into a tropical depression or storm, and the first advisories will be issued at 5PM.
Meanwhile, Danielle has weakened to a tropical storm.
11 AM EDT Monday, 30 August 2010 Update
Earl is now a Category 3 Hurricane, it will likely come very close to the virgin islands and part of the southern eyewall may impact the virgin islands. The forecast track shifted westward a bit and those from the Carolinas northward should watch the progress of Earl closely. Odds favor it staying offshore, but likely close enough to cause issues, however, forecast errors could bring it inland and those areas will want to watch closely for changes.
The Turks and Caicos islands of the Bahamas are now under a tropical storm watch, as Earl may come close enough to cause tropical storm force winds there.
Anguilla Info From Storm Carib -- Very Strong Winds, reports of damage.
St. Maarten Info from Storm Carib -- Reports of roofs gone, trees down, power out.
Radar Recording of Puerto Rico and French Antilles Radar
9 AM EDT Monday, 30 August 2010 Update
Earl's southern Eyewall is over Anguilla, St. Maarten is not very far away either. Power was lost in St. Maarten around 8:23 AM this morning.
Best place on Radar to look at now is on San Juan Radar.
Check Storm Carib for Updates from the islands
7 AM EDT Monday, 30 August 2010 Update
Hurricane Earl is just offshore to the north of Anguilla this morning, avoiding a direct hit on the islands, but close enough to cause some trouble, the forecast takes east of the Bahamas and then near the coast of North Carolina by Friday, and then turns it more northward, staying close to the coast of new England. Because the error could be several hundred miles (in either direction) those along the east coast from the Carolinas northward should pay close attention to earl.
Odds favor it staying offshore, but it would be close.
Danielle is still a hurricane, but likely to drop below hurricane strength soon.
97L did not develop over the weekend, but still has a good chance to over the next few days. The weaker system implies a greater chance for a westward motion and those in the Leewards will want to watch this system as well.
3 PM EDT Sunday, 29 August 2010 Update
Earl is nearing the islands, is roughly 190 miles due east of Barbuda Earl is visible on French Antilles Radar and the center is barely into range now. Earl appears to be moving slightly north of due west, on this track it will barely miss the islands to the north, and thus the Hurricane Warnings for the islands.
Beyond that, odds are the system stays east of the US, but it may be close, anyone in the cone will want to watch the progress of Earl closely.
8:30 AM EDT Sunday, 29 August 2010 Update
According to recon data, Earl has reached hurricane strength. Those in the Leeward islands should take warning preparations now, as conditions will deteriorate throughout the day.
Original Update
Tropical Storm Earl is looking a little more ragged this morning, mainly from influence from Danielle's outflow from the north that is Flattening out the top of this system, and pushing it down and around and up. But it is strengthening, and may inch toward Hurricane later day.
Likely making it stay east of the US, but close enough to keep parts of North Carolina, Maryland and Virginia in the western edge of the Cone. Odds still slightly favor it staying east of the coast, mainly since by then it will be free of Danielle's influence and have a way to wrap around.
Recon is out in Earl now. The next day or two is critical for both the Leewards (on how west it will go), and for how close the system may get to the Carolinas.
However, that is no means a certainty and anyone in the cone needs to watch this system very closely. Those in Hurricane Warning areas in the islands need to pay attention to local media and officials.
The wave east of Earl (97L) is likely to become a depression by 11AM, odds aren't as strong from recurve as the others were, and the impact of Danielle and earl's outflow (much like Danielle pushed Earl a bit further west), so will Earl on what likely will be FIona. Therefore for 97L, the odds are in favor of a US landfall (of what type is unknown), even if has less of a chance to touch the Leewards than Earl did. In other words it may miss the Leeward islands and then turn west. See the forecast Lounge for discussion of 97L.
The timing, if it did make landfall, would be at or just after Labor day. The models suggesting this have been trending that way, and have been the ones that have been more accurate than others this year.
Thankfully there will be plenty of time to watch this one, and we definitely will. Earl will be the focus over the next few days.
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