MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4635
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Focus Toward Igor and Bermuda
Thu Sep 16 2010 05:53 AM
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Karl made landfall yesterday afternoon as a weakening hurricane, which probably kept the worst away, it never made it to category four, thankfully. But damage was done around Veracruz.
Bermuda may have to deal with a direct hit from Igor Monday, and tomorrow conditions will degrade. Hurricane Warnings are up for the island, and a lot will depend on how close the core of Igor gets, the forecast is within 10 miles of the island, and a lot will depend on when the more easterly motion begins.
Bermuda should prepare for a direct hit from a major hurricane. The last hurricane Bermuda dealt with directly was Fabian in 2003.
The first sign of Igor may be some increased winds late tonight, but nothing bad until late tomorrow into Monday. It means Sunday will be windy all day winds with Igor large size, but the worst of it will be mostly overnight Sunday into Monday.
Most buildings in Bermuda are very well constructed, but storm surge may be an issue in some place.
Surge has the potential to flood large sections of the island. Those in Bermuda should prepare today while the weather is still good enough to work.
{{BermudaNews}}
Bermuda Radar Recording of Igor Approach (flhurricane)
Mark Sudduth over at hurricanetrack has a video stream from Bermuda
Another live stream from Bermuda
A new wave, in the far eastern Atlantic has been designated 94L and likely will stay out to sea.
{{StormLinks|Igor|11|11|2010|1|Igor}}
{{StormLinks|Julia|12|12|2010|3|Julia}}
{{StormLinks|94L|94|14|2010|4|94L}}
Update - 2:45PM CDT, Friday 17 Sept 2010
MAJOR HURRICANE KARL MADE LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHWEST GULF COAST
Karl made landfall on the coast of Mexico in the Bay of Campeche at 11:30 AM CDT as a major hurricane, with maximum sustained winds estimated to be 115MPH. As of this time, Karl is still a very dangerous tropical cyclone, and extremely heavy rainfall and flooding are likely now occurring. In addition, potentially deadly storm surge of 12 to 15 feet above normal levels may very well be underway along and near the coast within and to the north of the center.
Update - 5:45AM EDT, Friday 17 Sept 2010
Hurricane Karl was upgraded overnight to a major Hurricane, a category 3, and forecast to strengthen to 140MPH (Cat 4) by tonight. Rapid intesification happened in the Bay of Campeche and now Mexico (and a lot of us) will likely be caught by surprise. Those in coastal areas should evacuate while there is time (and there isn't much). This level of a hurricane was not forecast a few days ago, but a hurricane watch and warning were issued and is why to treat hurricane watches and warnings seriously.
Landfall will be late in the afternoon or early Evening.
Best of luck and prayers to those in that area of Mexico, they are about to get pounded.
The town most in danger from Karl is Laguna Verde, but Karl is large enough to cause problems a good distance away too.
Laguna Verde is home to Mexico's largest nuclear power plant.
Points just north of the landfall will receive the absolute worst of it. Veracruz will likely see some damage, but not the worst. Storm Surge will be a tremendous issue (!2-15 ft at and north of the landfall point).
Veracruz Webcam
Veracruz TV
Meanwhile Hurricane watches are now up for Bermuda as Igor is expected to be very close or over the island late Sunday into Monday morning.
Alvarado, MX Radar Recording of Karl Approach
{{StormCarib}}
{{StormLinks|Igor|11|11|2010|1|Igor}}
{{StormLinks|Julia|12|12|2010|3|Julia}}
{{StormLinks|Karl|13|13|2010|2|Karl}}
{{StormLinks|94L|94|14|2010|4|94L}}
Update - 11AM EDT, Thursday 16 Sept 2010
Just a short update to note that Karl is now a Hurricane - located about 100 miles west of Campeche, Mexico, moving west at 10 knots. Karl is now forecast to make landfall Friday evening near Poza Rica de Hidalgo, Mexico as a strong Cat II Hurricane - and NHC notes that landfall as a major hurricane is possible.
ED
Weather Conditions at Poza Rica
Weather Conditions at Tampico
Weather Conditions at Veracruz
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PALMA SOLA TO CABO ROJO
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ
* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF PALMA SOLA TO VERACRUZ
Original Post - 6AM EDT, Thursday 18 Sept 2010
Tropical Storm Karl is back over water in the Bay of Campeche this morning, and Hurricane Watches are now up from Bara de Nautla south to Palma Sola in Mexico. Karl is Forecast to landfall as a hurricane south of Tampico, but anyone in the watch area should prepare for it. Arrival time is the pre-dawn hours on Saturday.
Igor has completed it's first Eyewall replacement cycle and kept itself a category 4. It has another shot to strengthen before weakening. The forecast track remains dangerously close to Bermuda, so folks there need to probably start preparing for good possibility that there may be core of a very strong hurricane passing near or over the island.
Igor's convection is dragging toward the south, and the north side is a bit weaker looking this morning, but the core remains very strong. Igor will not affect the us mainland directly. Only higher surf and more potential for rip currents. Bermuda is looking more likely that it won't be able to avoid impact.
Julia has weakened some since yesterday, back to a category 2. It will remain out to sea.
Buoy in the path of Igor (will be at closest point in about 24 hours)
Alvarado, MX Radar Recording of Karl Approach
{{StormCarib}}
{{StormLinks|Igor|11|11|2010|1|Igor}}
{{StormLinks|Julia|12|12|2010|3|Julia}}
{{StormLinks|Karl|13|13|2010|2|Karl}}
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