TD16 is indeed more subtropical rather than tropical - and the structure was also subtropical this morning as well. The TD is still quite weak with poor structure - as are most subtropical systems. The TD should cross over western Cuba just to the south of Havana and the terrain in that area is rather flat with mountains further to the west. Since the system is already weak, crossing Cuba is not going to disrupt it too much (if at all). Havana pressure at 5PM and 6PM EDT was down to 1000MB.
With reference to some earlier comments, the DSHP model does consider land interaction, i.e., inland decay. Note the difference between the SHIP and the DSHP in the following:
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1829 UTC TUE SEP 28 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS. PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN (AL162010) 20100928 1800 UTC
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Re: Tropical Depression 16 Forms in Caribbean Watches/Warnings Issued
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