Small Paula Likely to stay south of Florida

One is a forecast - the models are guidance to consider in making the forecast. In this case however, the 11PM discussion indicates that the NHC forecast is generally close to the middle of the significantly spread model guidance package and very close to the TVCN (Consensus output). From NHC:

"VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE...WHICH
SHOULD CAUSE THE LOW- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS TO DECOUPLE . THE
RESULTANT SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL REMNANT CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
BE FORCED SOUTHWARD BY A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT IS
CURRENTLY BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...FLORIDA... AND THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE VERY
DIVERGENT NHC MODEL GUIDANCE."

The models assume that the system will remain intact - I don't think that they can determine (or handle) a decoupled system with any degree of reliability. While it is certainly true that the models have improved significantly over the past decade, it is also true that the meteorologist can recognize certain probable events that the automated system cannot.
ED

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