cieldumort
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Posts: 2497
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: Richard Forecast Lounge
Sat Oct 23 2010 01:28 PM
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As of the 11AM Richard Forecast Discussion #11, NHC notes that Richard is "strengthening quickly."
While not ideal, dry air entrainment has nearly come to an end, with shear also dropping to levels often associated with conditions that can favor rapidly intensifying cyclones. Environmental conditions for continued intensification are improving this weekend, and given that Richard is a relatively small tropical cyclone, it may keep having a tendency to respond fairly quickly to changes in its environment.
Richard has a window this weekend to strengthen more than currently forecast prior to landfall, and impact a small area significantly, depending on exactly where it goes, due to very high wind, and not just complications from rain.
This region is accustomed to very heavy rains during the summer and fall. In Belize City for example, October tends to be the wettest month of the year. As such, populations in this region may not be taken by surprise when a very heavy rain comes through. But residents may not be so prepared for a small, concentrated area of very high winds, which are likely to occur even with Richard not exceeding the current official forecast of about 70 knots around time of landfall.
This is definitely something those in Richard's forecast track may want to keep in mind when starting to make arrangements for the potential of a direct hit, which they should probably now be doing, just in case.
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