MikeC
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"Ominous" Tropical Cooking in the Atlantic: 90L, Tomas, & Shary
Wed Oct 27 2010 10:56 PM
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Friday, October 29, 2010 3:30PM EDT
And the season has managed to create the 19th named storm of the season with Tropical Storm Tomas forming from 91L. The Caribbean should keep a close eye on this storm, as it has the potential to be a threat.
Friday October 29, 2010 2:00PM EDT Brief Update
Recon is now flying Invest 91L, and is already finding maximum sustained winds of at least 40MPH, and fairly low pressures, having only just started sampling the storm. 91L is certainly on the cusp of becoming Tomas, if not already there, and interests in the Caribbean should be taking this feature seriously, despite the time of year.
Also just a quick note that Tropical Storm Shary is now up to 60MPH, and looks to have started making the forecast turn towards Bermuda.
By the way, Dr. Masters has more "inside looks" from the National Hurricane Center out today, as they relate to Shary, 91L and more. You can read his latest entry, "Shary forms; potentially dangerous 91L approaching Lesser Antilles," (HERE)
- Ciel
Friday October 29, 2010 3:00AM EDT Update
Invest 91L has become much better organized, and now presents some risk to the eastern Caribbean islands starting as soon as over the weekend, and perhaps including other Caribbean locations, into next week.
91L has true potential to become a player in the 2010 Atlantic record books. Internally and externally, 91L has some of the best factors going for it this year, and even though it is getting a bit late in the season, it is not unreasonable to consider preparing for the possibility of a large and powerful tropical cyclone in the Caribbean over the course of the next week or so.
Along those lines, some models now suggest that 91L will become a significant hurricane in the central and/or eastern Caribbean, and then kind of lollygag around in the same general location for several days. While by no means close to a certainty, this scenario actually looks plausible. However, it is very important to keep in mind that model forecasts made several days in advance when little (and in 91L's case, very little, so far) reliable data has been fed into them, are not always terribly reliable.
Hurricane hunters are scheduled to fly 91L later today, and this scheduled flight will most likely be kept. In fact, it is looking increasingly probable that 91L gets officially upgraded to a numbered tropical cyclone later this morning, even if recon has not yet made it out there.
Interests in the eastern Caribbean, including perhaps along the northernmost reaches of South America, may want to begin taking some initial precautions for the very high potential of a robust tropical cyclone bringing inclement weather starting as soon as later today, and/or into next week.
Other Features:
Tropical Storm Shary continues moving rapidly towards Bermuda, and may bring the island a blast of blustery rain before quickly blowing out for sea, most likely to be absorbed by the cold front now exiting the east coast. There is a chance that despite being small in size and moving very fast, long "arms" on either side of Shary may prolong wet and windy weather associated with it from Friday, well into Saturday, as well.
Invest 90L, which at one point was NHC's favorite for development, continues to be inhibited by shear. However, there remains a slim opportunity for tropical cyclogenesis to occur within the next few days. 90L is practically no threat to land, save maybe the Azores, either way.
- Ciel
Thursday October 28, 2010 11:00 PM EDT Update
Well, 92L beat the still organizing 91L and has gone from Invest straight to tropical storm Shary. Top winds are 40MPH, and appears to only be a potential threat to Bermuda - assuming it survives the fairly hostile environment ahead.
Thursday October 28, 2010 2:00 AM EDT Update
Formation of a tropical cyclone during the last week of October is certainly not unheard of, in and of itself, but having three modest to high potential suspect areas is, somewhat - also when considering their location - as late-season named storms more often tend to form in the western Atlantic.
NHC has just outlined in Red Invest 92L at 60%, Orange over Invest 90L at 50%, and Yellow remains over Invest 91L at a possibly conservative 20%.
Invest 90L
As of 2:00 AM EDT, Invest 90L consists of a well-defined surface low pressure system, with a ball of persistent and somewhat deep convection firing off in the eastern semicircle. Only a small increase in convective organization from this point could easily result in the quick formation of a named tropical storm, bypassing depression status.
The most likely future track of Invest 90L, regardless of additional development or not, would keep it far away from the U.S., but perhaps present a problem for some shipping interests, and maybe later on, the Azores.
Invest 91L
As of 2:00 AM EDT, Invest 91L remains an unseasonably vigorous tropical wave centered roughly 1,050 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands, and moving generally west-northwest. Environmental conditions look to favor some continued development of this feature, and further development in the near term or not, wet and blustery weather will likely be approaching the eastern Caribbean in a few days, either way.
NHC currently gives 91L an arguably conservative 20% probably for tropical cyclone development within 48 hours.
Invest 92L
Most impressive in the very near term, Invest 92L does look to be in the process of becoming a tropical or subtropical depression at this time, and NHC now gives it a 60% chance of becoming an officiated system within the next 48 hours.
While the U.S. would most probably not be directly impacted by 92L, should it develop, Bermuda might, and there is some possibility that 92L tracks further west than that.
- Ciel
Original Entry
Three areas in the Atlantic have some potential for development,
90L, 91L and 92L.
More to come on these later, but none are immediate threats.
{{StormLinks|Tomas|21|21|2010|1|Tomas}}
{{StormLinks|Shary|20|20|2010|2|Shary}}
{{StormLinks|90L|90|22|2010|2|90L}}
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