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A closed low has formed in the Bay of Campeche (SW Gulf) and may be getting better organized.
Days since last Hurricane Landfall — US Any: 611 (Milton), US Major: 611 (Milton), FL Any: 611 (Milton), FL Major: 611 (Milton)
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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Tropical Transition of 98C to TS Omeka is Likely Soon
      Mon Dec 20 2010 12:18 AM

From CPHC:

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0233 UTC MON DEC 20 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO CPHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

CENTRAL PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (CP982010) 20101220 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
101220 0000 101220 1200 101221 0000 101221 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.2N 179.9W 21.6N 177.8W 24.2N 176.7W 27.0N 176.3W
BAMD 20.2N 179.9W 21.5N 174.3W 25.5N 171.2W 29.2N 170.3W
BAMM 20.2N 179.9W 21.5N 175.8W 24.7N 173.3W 28.0N 172.4W
SHIP 45KTS 53KTS 60KTS 63KTS
DSHP 45KTS 53KTS 60KTS 63KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
101222 0000 101223 0000 101224 0000 101225 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 30.3N 176.0W 36.0N 175.9W 42.8N 177.9E 48.6N 172.4E
BAMD 33.1N 169.1W 35.7N 157.0W 37.1N 132.5W 49.4N 121.4W
BAMM 31.7N 171.7W 36.4N 166.5W 31.3N 160.4W 26.4N 157.1W
SHIP 64KTS 43KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 64KTS 43KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.2N LONCUR = 179.9W DIRCUR = 100DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 21.0N LONM12 = 179.1W DIRM12 = 180DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 22.2N LONM24 = 179.4W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 997MB OUTPRS = 1004MB OUTRAD = 145NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 45NM RD34SE = 45NM RD34SW = 45NM RD34NW = 45NM

Note that the 12 and 24 hour prior Longitudes should read 'E' rather than 'W'. JMA did designate the system as TC ONE earlier on Sunday. System is moving to the east northeast and westerly shear is evident. CPHC will probably start advisories at either 20/06Z or 20/09Z.
ED

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Invest 98C is Probably an STS Ed DunhamAdministrator Mon Dec 20 2010 12:18 AM
. * * Re: Invest 98C is Probably an STS Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Dec 19 2010 01:27 AM
. * * Tropical Transition of 98C is Likely Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Dec 19 2010 10:53 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Transition of 98C to TS Omeka is Likely Soon Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Dec 20 2010 12:18 AM
. * * Tropical Storm Okema West of Hawaiian Islands Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Dec 20 2010 09:21 AM
. * * Okema Becomes Extratropical Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue Dec 21 2010 08:34 AM

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