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CoconutCandy
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Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii
Beatriz Reorganizing Beneath CDO Feature
      Mon Jun 20 2011 05:15 PM

Indeed, 'Beatriz' could well be a borderline Cat 1 Hurricane already, due to increasing organization and per the recon mission assessment.

No recent overpasses by passive microwave imaging satellites to go by, per se, but recent animated water vapor imagery reveals a collapse of earlier feeder bands, and a consolidation of the inner convection into a tight core under a "Central Dense Overcast", or CDO feature, often the harbingers of further intensification.




Cloud tops are warming slightly this afternoon, as to be expected during the diurnal convective minimum cycle. But good chance that 'Beatriz' will continue to strengthen, perhaps considerably, during the coming overnight hours, local basin time.

As mentioned the SW'ern coast of Mexico will have to be diligent, as they may have a landfalling hurricane to deal with before all is said and done, should the ridge not build back in as quickly or as strong as is currently forecast.

Per the latest NHC Discussion:

"BEATRIZ IS GAINING LATITUDE DUE TO WEAKENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD, THE RIDGE WILL RE-STRENGTHEN AND SHOULD RESULT IN BEATRIZ TURNING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE WEST BY 72 HOURS.

THE DETAILS OF THE TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THIS TURN WILL BE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING HOW CLOSE THE CENTER OF BEATRIZ COMES TO THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.

Additionally ...

CONDITIONS ALONG
THE COAST IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE LATER TODAY. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THOSE AREAS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

Awaiting next bulletin's discussion and further microwave imagery to post further analysis ...

--------------------
"Don't Get Stuck on Stupid" - General Honore, following Hurricane Katrina

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Beatriz Ed DunhamAdministrator Mon Jun 20 2011 05:15 PM
. * * Re: Beatriz danielwAdministrator   Mon Jun 20 2011 02:30 PM
. * * Beatriz Reorganizing Beneath CDO Feature CoconutCandy   Mon Jun 20 2011 05:15 PM

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