MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Tropical Storm Don Heading Toward Texas
Wed Jul 27 2011 04:53 PM
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10:45 PM EDT (9:45 PM CDT) 28 July 2011 Update
With the 11PM (10PM CDT) Hurricane Center Advisory, Tropical Storm Warnings were applied further southward to the Texas/Mexico border. And because of a jog to the west the official track takes it into Kenedy county Texas (pop 416), just north of Brownsville. This same mostly unpopulated coastal county was where Bret in 1999 made landfall.
Any further southward jog would take it toward South Padre Island or Brownsville.
Don had a burst of convection earlier and strengthened slightly, but it still remains under some shear and still remains tilted. It's wind speed has increased to 50MPH. IT has a small window of opportunity to increase but the Official forecast keeps it below hurricane strength, and there is still no good reason to doubt that.
Don is currently weakening slightly again, and probably will hover around where it is at. Based on charts, it may weaken further as it approaches the coastline.
The benefit of the earlier burst of convection is that served to make the area covered by Don a bit larger, so more areas would get rainfall, but the heaviest is mostly on the south side of the system where the convection is being blown off.
7:45 PM EDT (6:45 PM CDT) 28 July 2011 Update
The official 8PM position is 24.7N 91.8W, the NHC in the advisory considered it a westward jog. More data from the planes coming later should be interesting.
Also the Central Atlantic wave (no invest yet) has a 20% chance for development over the next 48 hours, so we may go from Don right into tracking another system.
6:15 PM EDT (5:15 PM CDT) 28 July 2011 Update
One of the more interesting aspects of tropical meteorology involves how quickly things sometimes can change in the tropics, especially with a system like Don.
The image above shows a "hot tower" or an area of the storm that shoots up in the atmosphere quickly, usually indicating strengthening, in this case it may mean that Don may be relocating a bit south of the 5PM Advisory position, which would shift the track to the left. This is also an indicator it may be deflecting some of the northerly shear and starting to look more like a classic Tropical Storm on satellite imagery.
The recon reports above also indicate that the center may be reforming further southward.
Nothing too alarming as of yet, but it is an indication that Don should not be ignored. The "all clear" is not out on the system yet, in fact moving to the south gives it a better opportunity to strengthen before landfall.
As recon reports come in, we'll update the site.
IMeteorologist Ed Dunham on Don available here.
The wave in the Central Atlantic (no invest yet) will likely be worth watching into next week, so not much break after Don.
5 PM EDT (4 PM CDT) 28 July 2011 Update
The 5PM update offers no real change, other than shifting the track slightly southward, it appears the vertical/easterly shear that is affecting Don now will last through landfall, keeping Don a rainmaker as a tropical storm on landfall. If this shear remains through landfall, as in the forecast, most of the rain will be around the center and just to the south of landfall (vs a 'healthy' system that would tend to prefer northern rainfall), unfortunately for most of Texas. Some parts will still get rain on the northern side, but not as much as you may expect from a tropical system. Still it will help the drought stricken areas.
It still has a full day to change, and get a little stronger, so it's not over yet, as a small system it can change up or down very rapidly.
Those in the Tropical Storm Warning area should pay attention to local statements and media regarding your situation.
11 AM EDT (10 AM CDT) 28 July 2011 Update
Tropical Storm Warnings are now up in southeast Texas from Port Mansfield (north of South Padre Island) northward to San Luis Pass (Just southwest of Galveston). This means that the hurricane center is expecting tropical storm conditions within 36 hours. Landfall is still expected in the overnight hours Friday evening into Saturday.
The good news it appears any chance of it becoming a hurricane are waning by the hour, which means it's a good shot as a rainmaker for parts at and north of the landfall point, if the shearing continues like it has though, most of the rain may actually be toward the southern side. It is forecast that vertical wind shear and dry air will keep the system below hurricane strength, and I see no reason to doubt that.
5 AM EDT (4 AM CDT) 28 July 2011 Update
Tropical Storm watches are now up for Texas from the Mexico Border/Rio Grande northward to San Luis Pass, this means that tropical storm force conditions are expected for the area within 48 hours.
The good news this morning is that Don is struggling battling the ridge and dry air, and has remained weak, as a borderline Tropical Storm overnight. Particularly weak on the in-feed on the western side of the storm. It's a small storm, with tropical storm force winds extending outward just 45 miles from the center.
This has shifted the official forecast track a bit further south toward Corpus Christi, and it may be adjusted slightly further south from there. The middle Texas coast has the highest chance for landfall.
Don is expected to increase in forward speed later today, and the current forecast sets the landfall time overnight Friday into Saturday. Don, however, remains a fairly well organized system at its core, and remains intact with convection continuing to fire over the low level circulation center. Which means it is not weakening (But not strengthening currently either), and should be watched closely during the day for changes. It's a small storm, with tropical storm force winds extending outward just 45 miles from the center. The first chance for it to organize more comes this afternoon as it moves away from the Yucatan.
This means that Don is most likely going to be a rainmaker for Texas, probably not as much area of Texas as one would hope for most of Texas, but a rainmaker none the less. The areas that do get rainfall will likely experience heavy
amounts. Also with tropical storms, especially as they near hurricane force, you can see short lived/weak tornadoes on either side of the landfall, some surge both mostly north of the landfall.
Currently since Don remains a small storm, it is very easily affected by conditions around it. This may be a good thing now in the near term, as it is likely to keep the system generally weaker, but potentially more dangerous in the long term since it could change relatively quickly if conditions in the Gulf improve.
With the tropical storm watches the expectations are that it will not reach hurricane force. Those in Texas should continue to monitor it very closely to see what the trends are over today. One of the first chances that the system will have to get more organized comes mid to late today.
Those in the watch area, please monitor local media/officials for more information if things change. There sill exists, with the small system, that it could organize rather quickly once it moves into the western Gulf, and could still be a hurricane at that time, but the current thought from the National Hurricane Center is that it will not.
Those in the watch area should know that the hurricane center fully updates Every 6 hours, which includes (Times CST) 5AM, 10AM, 5PM, 10PM, and also issues intermediate advisories when there are watches/warnings up at 7AM, 1PM, 7PM, and 1AM. If a very rapid change were to occur they will issue a special statement (Usually after recon findings), these are rare, but could happen anytime. So you can schedule checks around those times.
Track Mark Sudduth from HurricaneTrack.com on a map as he heads toward Texas for Don.
Original Update
Based on Recon Data, Tropical Storm Don has formed from the wave now entering the Southern Gulf of Mexico (90L), just north of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Those in Texas will want to watch this closely. Currently there are no watches and warnings in effect, but interest in the norwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Don. Watches/Warnings may go up later tonight for portions of Texas.
Those along the Texas coastline in the Official Forecast Cone (particularly Texas from Galveston southward into Brownsville) will need to listen closely to local media and officials if and when watches/warnings are issued. Currently the forecast keeps it a Tropical Storm, but there is a window where it could become a hurricane after 48 hours (Right before landfall).
The track is forecasted to be generally west northwest to northwest and expected to bend more westward around midday Friday, approaching Central Texas coast overnight Friday evening.
As a rainmaker, Don probably won't do too much, unfortunately, as it covers a small area. The area that does get the rain, I'm sure will take it though. The best case is that Don stays weaker and gives at least some rain to areas in Texas that need it very badly. Those at and just north of landfall point will receive the most rain, and in some areas it could be as much as 3-6".
Outside of Don, there is an area in the eastern Caribbean that may be worth watching next week.
Cancun radar recording of 90L approach
Webcam Recording: Cancun Beach Palace roof looking north northeast along the beach.
{{TexasGulfRadar}}
{{StormLinks|Don|04|4|2011|1|Don}}
{{StormLinks|91L|91|5|2011|2|91L}}
Long Term Floater Recordings of Don:
Visible Floater Recording of Don
Water Vapor Floater Recording of Don
Rainbow IR Floater Recording of Don
Don Approach Related Links:
Color Sat of Gulf
Emergency Management:
Texas Division of Emergency Management
Texas Emergency Management Reports
AEP Texas Power Outage Map
Local Media/Television
Corpus Christi:
KRIS TV 6 (NBC Corpus Christi)
KZTV 10 (CBS Corpus Christi)
KIII TV 3 (ABC Corpus Christi)
Brownsville:
KGBT 4 News Brownsville
KRGV Newschannel 5 Brownsville
KURV 710 News/Talk Brownsville
Houston:
KHOU the CBS affiliate in houston, is former Hurricane Center director Neil Frank's station, and likely will begin streaming once warnings are up in the area
Channel 2 NBC affiliate in Houston
ABC 13 in Houston
Houson Fox 26
Radio
KTRH Rado News/Talk station in Houston with streaming
Other Houston area radio
Newspapers
Corpus Christi Caller-Times
Houston Chronicle
Brownsville Herald
The Monitor
Valley Morning Star
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