Latest fix from 1 hour ago shows it went from 10 to 5 miles 1,500 ft center to surface center with 1 mile accuracy. Winds are near 45-50mph.. but pressure supports 35-40mph system.. I would then compromise on a 40-45mph storm with gust near 50.
Latest GFS out to 48hrs has landfall near DR-Haiti boarder... it does another blow up of convection tonight and pressure down to 1005mb by Weds morning and maybe even lower by landfall later Weds night.(GFS maps usually do show a higher pressure then what a system really is)...
We will see what happens to the system tonight. I think what is more important though than the models is the near term pressure of the system. Lets see if it gets its act together and pressure drops.. once and if that does occur..we can determine what this might do and where it may go. Right now.. any decrease in convection could weaken this to a LLT with a midlevel dying circulation.
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Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean
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