Either way I think we will see an even bigger split in the models, later. It may be the 00Z run before we see significant changes.
Currently All of the BAM suite is on the SW side of the Florida Peninsula. The right turn is reflected in nearly all of the other models.
Except the BAMD and CMC they want to go toward the Eastern GOM.
TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011 1100 AM AST WED AUG 03 2011 edited~danielw
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. ASSUMING EMILY CAN MAINTAIN A VERTICALLY DEEP CIRCULATION...THE CYCLONE SHOULD SOON TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE NORTH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS NOT BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD... AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE GFS REMAINS ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE A SIGNIFICANT RAINMAKER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT ISLANDS
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