NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 1235 AM EDT SAT AUG 06 2011
EMILYS REMNANTS NEAR THE SOUTHEAST... PREFERENCE: 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF COMPROMISE
OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THE NAM HAS TRENDED SOUTHWEST OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS. THE ECMWF LIES ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF ITS PAST COUPLE DAYS OF RUNS AND BRINGS ITS MID-LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER INTO FLORIDA WHICH THEN SITS AND SPINS ACROSS THE LOWER KISSIMMEE RIVER VALLEY/JUST NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
WHEN COMPARING THE GUIDANCE...THE 12Z CANADIAN/18Z AND 00Z GFS/00Z NAM RECURVE THIS SYSTEM QUICKER OUT TO SEA THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A SOLUTION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE...WHICH FITS THE HISTORY OF EMILY SO FAR...SIMILAR TO A 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF COMPROMISE...SHOULD WORK OUT THE BEST. NO MATTER WHICH PIECE OF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS CHOSEN...THE SURFACE SIGNATURE OF THIS SYSTEM IS LOST BY SUNDAY. THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST CONDITIONS NEAR THE SYSTEM BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE FOR REDEVELOPMENT FROM A LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR STANDPOINT.. .BUT NHC THINKS OTHERWISE.
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