MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Tropical Storm Gert (Former TD7) SSE of Bermuda
Thu Aug 11 2011 07:14 AM
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Update - Sunday, August 14, 5PM EDT
Based on Recon, NHC upgraded TD7 to Tropical Storm Gert with sustained winds of 40 knots. Gert is listed as moving NNW, however past movement had been more WNW when convection was displaced from the low level center last night. Southwesterly upper level flow is still causing some shear over Gert and this flow is expected to increase over the next couple of days. Intermittent convective displacement is still possible which could cause a wobbling system track and fluctuations in intensity until the system structure improves. Since the current NHC expectation is for Gert to pass near Bermuda on Monday afternoon, Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for the Island.
ED
Weather Conditions at Hamilton, Bermuda
Bermuda Weather Radar
11:30 PM EDT 13 August 2011 Update
Franklin has weakened and under cool SSTs of 25C the system has become extratropical. Invest 94L is now Tropical Depression 7 located about 360 miles SSE of Bermuda and a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Bermuda. TD7 is expected to intensify but the system has a large SAL area to the east and a lot of dry air to contend with so any intensification should be slow.
Invest 92L is looking a lot better in terms of convection and organization this evening and 92L could create erratic movement for TD7 in the next couple of days. 92L will be moving into a less hostile upper air environment and also has a chance for additional intensification.
Invest 93L in the east-central Atlantic, because of significant dry air to the north of the system, has been on a rapid decline and may not recover.
ED
6:30 AM EDT 13 August 2011 Update
Tropical Storm Franklin has formed, from Tropical Depression Six in the middle of the Atlantic, moving North East. This system is no threat to land and is another named system this year that will likely fail to reach hurricane strength.
The story with the rest of the watched areas in the Atlantic remains basically unchanged.
5PM EDT 12 August 2011 Update
Invest 95L has been upgraded to Tropical Depression Six located over 250 miles to the north of Bermuda. The TD is moving to the east northeast and an east northeast to northeast movement should continue until the system merges with a frontal zone in a couple of days (or less). The system already exhibits some extratropical characteristics. Some minor additional development is possible and TD6 could become a minimal Tropical Storm later tonight or on Saturday.
ED
The wave northeast of the Leewards (now tracked at 94L) is looking the best of the rest tonight and may well wind up being the next depression to develop. Luckily this appears like it too will recurve.
In short, all except the easternmost wave (93L) looks to have very little chance of affecting land.
7 AM EDT 12 August 2011 Update
The tropics continue to bubble today with 4 separate areas worth watching. A broad low area northeast of the Caribbean has "broke off" from the remnants of Emily and moved with the flow back south. This is very weak at the moment, but based on the time of year it has to be watched to see if something comes of it, it is not being tracked as an invest it this time. Of all the systems currently highlighted in the Atlantic, this may wind up being the most interesting and it should be watched closely to see if anything forms out of it, if it does it has a higher than usual chance to affect the Bahamas and possibly the coast. Thankfully it is the least likely to develop out of all the systems in the Hurricane Center's outlook.
92L remains weak and by far most likely to recurve before reaching any land.
93L, if it remains weak and in the shadow of 92L will likely continue westward, if it were develop and strengthen chances of it moving north and recurving are much greater. It too will have to be monitored, but it is still most likely to recurve at some point. (Although like yesterday, it's much too far out to be certain of it)
It is likely the latter half of August will be busy in the tropics, with a good number of storms, but few making it close enough to worry about. The most concerning systems will be the ones that form closer toward the US or off of old fronts or systems.
Original Update
The Atlantic is starting to bubble up as it heads into mid August. Next week it appears there may be two systems being tracked, but thankfully the pattern is somewhat similar to last year in that most storms that form off Africa will likely recurve before reaching the US. There is some potential chance that the eastern Caribbean islands may see some affects from 93L (The second system), but it will have to be monitored.
Unlike last year, the North-Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) negative pattern that helped to prevent storms from reaching the coast isn't quite as strong, but still nothing like 2004/2005 that basically gave odds favoring landfall over not. This month, odds are most any system that develops off Africa will recurve, probably 70% chance that they do. Patterns can change, so the chance remains the systems can slip through. See the forecast lounge for more speculation on these systems.
Outside of that, there is ex Emily, which is mainlining itself but conditions just aren't favorable for redevelopment.
The area causing the rain in Florida lately is a trough of low pressure, if anything forms out of this it would be a very slow process, and would move east and away from the US.
In short, lots of potential things in the tropics, but nothing solid, next week will likely be much more active, but thankfully odds for any threat to the US that week is probably 1 in 10, and the eastern Caribbean islands 1 in 4. We'll monitor the trends, if either system were to buck the odds it would likely be the eastern most wave (93L)
{{StormLinks|92L|92|9|2011|1|92L (West Atlantic Wave)}}
{{StormLinks|TS Gert|07|7|2011|2|TS Gert}}
Long term Central Atantic wide area Water Vapor Satellite for Hurricane Season Peak flhurricane)
Long term West Atantic wide area Water Vapor Satellite for Hurricane Season Peak flhurricane)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Aug 15 2011 12:01 AM)
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