EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 330 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2011
VALID 12Z SAT AUG 20 2011 - 12Z WED AUG 24 2011
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A WEST COAST RIDGE AND ERN NOAM TROF. FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A LONG TIME...THERE WILL BE AN AREA OF ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ALONG THE PACIFIC NW COAST ALMOST THE ENTIRE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.
THE ONLY CHANGE TO FINAL GRAPHICS WAS TO ADJUST AN ERN CONUS COLD FRONT FASTER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AFTER IT BECAME OBVIOUS THAT ALL THE NEW 12Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE NEW GFS...WAS STAYING AWAY FROM THE SLOWER 00Z AND 06Z GFS FAMILY OF SOLUTIONS IN CANADA DAYS 6-7 WHICH HAD ALSO BEEN SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z DGEX/CANADIAN. IN RESPONSE TO SOMEWHAT FLATTER FLOW UPSTREAM ACROSS SWRN CANADA THAN CONSENSUS OF 00Z GUIDANCE...THE NEW ECMWF AND GFS ARE FILLING/LIFTING OUT THE TROF ALONG THE E COAST OF THE CONUS FASTER BY NEXT WED DAY 7 THAN THEIR 00Z CONTINUITY. IF UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS DEPARTING TROF FROM THE ATLANTIC...IT WOULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL ACTIVITY TO AFFECT THE SE COAST OF THE LOWER 48 BEYOND A WEEKS TIME. HPC AND NHC WILL BE FOLLOWING A WAVE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT WEEK...EXPECTING IT TO BE SOMEWHERE VICINITY OF THE BAHAMAS BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK. PLEASE STAY CURRENT ON NHC DISCUSSIONS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
Previous
Index
Next
Flat
Re: Atlantic Wave
Edit
Reply
Quote
