Tropical Storm Fernanda appears to be staging a comeback this afternoon, local basin time.
Deep convection that had waned in both extent and depth (intensity) during the past 18 hours or so, appears to be returning again, and with a vengeance.
Deep, 'Bursting' type convection, with very cold cloud tops of less than -80 C, have reformed directly over the center of circulation, as the following animated visible satellite imagery clearly shows.
Much has been written in NHC's Discussions about the cyclone 'possibly' ingesting a more stable and drier airmass to it's north and west, and of the 'marginal' SST's. But, in MHO, (and I do have decades of experience, carefully scrutinizing the convection and convective trends of tropical cyclones with regard to a myriad of thermodynamic considerations) a bit too much has been made of these 'possible factors' in the ongoing development and, especially, the forecast intensity of 'Fernanda'.
It seems that the models are as skiddish during their initialization with regard to convection (or it's lack thereof) as Wall Street Investors about world economic affairs; it can get to be a real 'rollercoaster ride' with regard to intensity forecasting.
I am not too sure *why* the convection had been so sparse and weak during the aforementioned period, and it may well be due to the alluded to 'marginal thermodynamic conditions', or some other unknown factors, possibly related to the ongoing reorganization and internal dynamics of the inner core convection.
But, suffice to say, *neither* (stable airmass nor SST's) appears to be hindering 'Fernanda' this afternoon. The storm remains *VERY* well organized and my surmise is that the latest NHC Advisory and Discussion may well have to backpedal a tad on it's ongoing assessment regarding the 'marginal conditions' and their implied effects (or not!) on 'Fernanda', at least in the short term of the next 6 to 12 hours, and possibly longer.
I will have much more to say about ongoing developments, including some really interesting graphics in a future post, so you may look forward to that at some point.
OK, let's see what the latest forecast discussion, now just out, has to say about this unexpected flare up of deep, bursting convection over the center of Tropical Storm 'Fernanda'. This should be interesting ...
Side Note: 'Fernanda' will cross 140 W longitude tonight and tracking efforts and forecast responsibility will be transferred from the NHC in Miami, to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) in Honolulu.
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"Don't Get Stuck on Stupid" - General Honore, following Hurricane Katrina
Edited by CoconutCandy (Fri Aug 19 2011 05:50 AM)
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