MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Tropical Storm Irene To Cross Puerto Rico Tonight
Sat Aug 20 2011 06:40 PM
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11PM EDT Update 21 August 2011
They went closer to the TVCN and consensus with the 11PM track, but only marginally so. Irene may briefly hit hurricane force before landfall in Puerto Rico (at 70mph it's very close now). After that the official forecast takes it along the northern coast of the Dominican republic, and later through the Bahamas, with landfall near Cape Canaveral. The cone still is fairly uncertain at that range and may extend eastward or slightly westward. With a lean toward the east right now. Those in the Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina should continue to monitor Irene.
Hurricane watches are now up for the Central Bahamas.
8PM EDT Update 21 August 2011
Hurricane Warnings are up for Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the entire coastline of the Dominican Republic.
Hurricane Watches are up for the US Virgin Islands
Tropical Storm Warnings are up for the US and British Virgin Islands, Haiti, St. Martin and St. Barthelemy, the Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.
Tropical Storm watches are now up for the Central Bahamas as well.
Recon has found higher winds and lower pressure in Irene, 995 mb, after taking off from St. Croix while the center of circulation was over the island.
Most of Puerto Rico will be on the 'dirty' side of Irene as it passes over tonight, it will be an extremely rough evening there. Those in the area should be prepared.
After this, the forecast appears like there is no avoiding Hispaniola for Irene, and that it will at least cross over the Dominican Republic, probably as a hurricane. It is very likely Irene will become a hurricane tonight or early tomorrow as the system has a very healthy core, even though the southern outflow is lacking.
Beyond this is still speculation, but the current trends, with the notable exception of the GFDL, suggest it staying east of Florida and eventually impacting in south or North Carolina. The official forecast still takes it through Florida, which is very possible, this depends on exactly how far west Irene gets before feeling the weakness in the ridge. Based on radar imagery Irene may be in the process of slowing forward motion, which would extend the time affecting Peurto Rico.
Those in the Watch/Warning areas, Cone, and all along the US Southeast from all of Florida to North Carolina need to watch Irene very closely.
Tropical Depression Harvey is back over water in the Bay of Campeche and is expected to regain Tropical Storm Force before making a second landfall in Southern Mexico. Tropical Storm Warnings are up for the coast from Punta el Lagarto to Barra de Nautla.
Added radar recording of Puerto Rico long range radar here.
{{StormCarib}}
8:30AM Update 21 August 2011
Tropical Storm Irene has entered the Caribbean, it is now just west of the volcanic island of Montserrat, the center reformed a bit further north overnight closer to most of the convection, and on Leewards/Guadaloupe Radar the position is easily seen.
There is a strong subtropical ridge to the north of Irene which will curtain much movement to the north for the short term, but will still bring it uncomfortable close to Puerto Rico, with this forecast they will receive the dirty side of the storm. After that, the official forecast calls for Irene to become this year's first Atlantic hurricane as it approaches the Dominican Republic. Today and tomorrow will be very important days for the future track of the system.
For this reason there are now hurricane warnings up for the south coast of the Dominican Republic to haiti, as well as hurricane watches for the entirety of Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra.
The ridge remains strong until about Wednesday, then it may have enough of a weakness to allow it to move more northward, and according to the official forecast that would take it over Haiti and Eastern Cuba, weakening the system, perhaps quite a bit. However, it main remain organized enough to recover somewhat after entering the Florida straights, and by then it will have slowed enough to give it a good day over the extremely warm Florida straits, and therefore the official forecast regenerates it into a hurricane and makes landfall in south Florida (South of Miami).
Most of the models are in fairly close agreement, but only diverge near closer to Florida, some taking it just west (which puts , and some taking it just east (Which would imply South or North Carolina as the ridge is expected to build back in quite solidly). The consensus is right up the spine of Florida, and unfortunately, there isn't much right now that would suggest otherwise that it will likely be some sort of threat to the Central Gulf, but more likely for Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina based on the current position . We'll look for good news in that regard. The best news would be for the system to have enough land interaction that it never recovers, but the official forecast still calls for a hurricane south Florida landfall Overnight Thursday into Friday. Those in the cone will need to watch Irene closely to see what happens with the track today and how much land interaction it has. And based on the official forecast, making sure your supplies are in order in case the cone verifies is probably a good idea, and watch to see what occurs with the track. Current indications are that if it were to change, it would be to the east. Still the odds of recurving before landfall in the US are very low.
Based on the latest satellites and radar, it looks like the center is getting drawn northward more into the convection, which is not so good for Puerto Rico, and lessens the impact from Hispaniola. Based on water vapor, I don't see this trend lasting much longer, the primarily western motion likely will kick in pretty soon.
Added radar recording of Puerto Rico long range radar here.
Leewards/Martinique Radar recording for Irene Approach
See the Forecast Lounge for more speculation on Irene.
Original Update
Tropical Storm Irene has formed East of the Leeward Islands from two recon reports in the area of the invest known as
97L.
Tropical Storm Warnings are up for: Puerto Rico and US Virgin Islands, Vieques, Culebra.
Curaco, St. Eustatius, St. Maartin. Dominica, Barbus, St. Kitts, Nevis, Antigua, Montserrat, Anguilla, British Virgin Islands.
Irene is a large system, the current official forecast track takes it through the Caribbean south of the islands until Hait, but the northern edges may still receive Tropical Storm force winds. It then clips through eastern Cuba, and the end of the forecast period puts it just south of Florida. There is greater than usual uncertainty about intensity, but track seems fairly solid in the Cone. Anyone in the cone should pay close attention to what happens with Irene over the next few days.
The good news is that the current forecast keeps it at Tropical Storm force after it crosses the islands, assuming that occurs, a much weaker system would be approaching Florida. It's also fairly disorganized right now for a Tropical Storm. The bad news, as this forecast goes with the large assumption that land interaction is fairly high after 3 days or so. If it were to avoid land (especially Hispaniola) it could be much stronger, and the National Hurricane Center indicates this as such. Therefore, it must be watched closely by the US Southeast, Florida, and North Central Gulf coasts.
Added radar recording of Puerto Rico long range radar here.
Leewards/Martinique Radar recording for Irene Approach
See the Forecast Lounge for more speculation on Irene.
{{StormCarib}}
{{StormLinks|Irene|09|9|2011|2|Irene}}
{{StormLinks|Harvey|08|8|2011|1|Harvey}}
{{StormLinks|98L|98|10|2011|3|98L}}
Flhurricane Radar Recording of Martinique Radar (93L Approach)
Long term Central Atantic wide area Water Vapor Satellite for Hurricane Season Peak flhurricane)
Long term West Atantic wide area Water Vapor Satellite for Hurricane Season Peak flhurricane)
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