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Archives 2000s >> 2002 Storm Forum

Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
My 2002 hurricane season theory.
      Sun Jun 30 2002 10:30 AM

I've developed a theory about what could make this season very dangerous for the islands and the U.S. East Coast, but it could be wrong if SSTA's change in the Eastern Atlantic. The theory is composed of these facts:

1. For few months now, the SSTA's in the Eastern Atlantic have been anywhere from moderately to significantly below normal. This is after a hot start with SSTA's extremely above normal in JAN-MAR 2002.

2. Many African waves this year have had good satellite signature despite convection fizzling when they leave the continent of Africa.

When you piece this together, you'd be inclined to think that the East Atlantic would be very quiet this year. Of course, this would be bearing that the SSTA's in the Atlantic didn't rebound to near or above normal readings. So, if these waves keep their satellite signature as they move west into warmer waters, they would likely develop much closer to the islands than they have the past couple of years! This would significantly improve the chances of a major hurricane hitting the Eastern U.S. coast this year if this "theory" holds true. We'll see what happens. This pattern wouldn't lend to significantly above average hurricane activity (like the past few years), but it would mean more U.S. landfalls.
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