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Archives 2010s >> 2012 Storm Forum

Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)

Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL

Outlook for 2012
Sun Jan 01 2012 12:46 AM

CSU decided not to issue a quantitative (numerical) forecast in December because they felt that ENSO forecasts do not show any skill at the 6 to 9 month forecast period (probably true) but I think that a forecast is still feasible - if nothing more than an initial starting point which can be based on long range SST projections that are still being issued by NOAA. TSR did issue an initial outlook for 2012 on 12/7/11 with a forecast of 14/7/3.

NOAA expects the current La Nina to continue through the Summer of the 2012 hurricane season in the Atlantic basin. They also expect that the SST anomaly over just about the entire Atlantic basin will remain neutral for the full tropical season. With that expectation, the best analog years for 2012 would seem to be 1956 (8/4/2), 1975 (9/6/3), 1971 (13/6/2) and 1932 (11/6/4). 1932 is more for likely track pattern rather than numbers. 2000 (15/8/3) was also considered, but rejected as a good analog because during 2000 a warm anomaly (rather than a neutral condition) existed in the central Atlantic along 30N.

My initial outlook for the 2012 season is for 11 or 12 named storms (I'll firm up the number in the Spring) with 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes - pretty much a normal season of activity. Primary U.S. landfall threat zone looks like the Florida panhandle westward to the Texas coast (all of it). In other words, the initial pattern suggests more of a northern Gulf Coast season for 2012, but that could certainly change in the next six months.

If you feel the urge, you can add your own initial thoughts for the upcoming season - and your numbers can be revised as often as you wish until this thread gets closed on June 1st. You don't need to provide any rationale for your numbers - unless you wish to.
Cheers,
ED

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Outlook for 2012	Ed Dunham	Sun Jan 01 2012 12:46 AM
Re: Outlook for 2012	Ed Dunham	Fri Jun 01 2012 12:02 AM
2012 Seasonal Forecast Results	Ed Dunham	Thu Oct 18 2012 11:15 AM
Re: 2012 Seasonal Forecast Results - Updated	Ed Dunham	Fri Oct 26 2012 11:40 AM
Re: Outlook for 2012	IMTechspec	Thu May 31 2012 08:26 PM
Re: Outlook for 2012	beachcrafts	Wed May 30 2012 11:48 AM
Re: Outlook for 2012	LoisCane	Wed May 30 2012 02:10 PM
Re: Outlook for 2012	Ed Dunham	Thu May 31 2012 12:14 PM
Re: Outlook for 2012	weathernet	Thu May 31 2012 11:58 PM
Re: Outlook for 2012	MikeC	Thu May 31 2012 07:02 PM
Re: Outlook for 2012	Ed Dunham	Wed May 30 2012 12:20 AM
Re: Outlook for 2012	srquirrely	Thu May 31 2012 05:47 PM
Re: Outlook for 2012	okihabu	Wed May 30 2012 09:27 AM
Re: Outlook for 2012	cieldumort	Mon May 28 2012 08:08 PM
Re: Outlook for 2012	danielw	Mon May 28 2012 09:22 PM
Re: Outlook for 2012	gsand	Sun May 27 2012 09:58 AM
Re: Outlook for 2012	Bloodstar	Sun May 27 2012 06:03 PM
Re: Outlook for 2012	stormtiger	Fri May 25 2012 01:08 PM
Re: Outlook for 2012	Ed Dunham	Fri Mar 02 2012 09:49 AM
Outlook for 2012	rmbjoe1954	Mon Apr 30 2012 02:53 PM
Re: Outlook for 2012	Hurricane Fredrick 1979	Wed May 09 2012 09:58 AM
Re: Outlook for 2012	M.A.	Thu May 10 2012 08:16 AM
Re: Outlook for 2012	Ed Dunham	Sun Apr 01 2012 09:51 AM
Re: Outlook for 2012	Ed Dunham	Wed Apr 04 2012 05:49 PM
Re: Outlook for 2012	Ed Dunham	Sat May 19 2012 12:10 AM
Re: Outlook for 2012	Ed Dunham	Tue May 22 2012 09:02 PM
Re: Outlook for 2012	LoisCane	Thu May 24 2012 08:15 AM
Re: Outlook for 2012	Lamar-Plant City	Tue May 29 2012 12:52 AM
Re: Outlook for 2012	riche	Thu May 24 2012 07:38 AM
Re: Outlook for 2012	GlenJohnson	Sat May 19 2012 07:38 AM
Re: Outlook for 2012	jessiej	Wed May 16 2012 09:01 PM
Re: Outlook for 2012	doug	Tue Apr 10 2012 08:45 AM
Re: Outlook for 2012	doug	Tue Apr 17 2012 12:52 PM
Re: Outlook for 2012	ftlaudbob	Tue Apr 17 2012 02:57 PM
Re: Outlook for 2012	GlenJohnson	Fri Apr 27 2012 10:14 PM
Re: Outlook for 2012	MichaelA	Sun Apr 29 2012 12:49 PM
Re: Outlook for 2012	weathernet	Mon Apr 30 2012 12:58 AM
Re: Outlook for 2012	B.C.Francis	Sun Mar 11 2012 03:20 PM

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