Tropical "Blob" over S. Florida

I've been watching the Blob off and on for a few days. It seems to be ingesting some dry air. And the convection is diminishing in coverage and intensity.

Latest Wavewatch model run has winds in the 29-32kt range over the next few hours on both side of the Southern FL Peninsula. They drop off after the 'core' of the winds moves to the NW near Buoy 42003. Seas are forecast to peak at 4-5 meters/ 12-15 feet around Midnight tonight, again in the vicinity of Buoy 42003.

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/viewer.shtml?-multi_1-gmex-

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
225 PM EDT MON APR 30 2012 edited~danielw

FARTHER EAST...THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FROM A LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS...
ACROSS CUBA TO HONDURAS. THE TROUGH IS LIFTING OVER A WANING CELL
OF THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE AS THE LATTER EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH TO THE WEST IS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN WHILE LIFTING OVER
WANING CELL OF THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LONG
FETCH WESTERLY FLOW TO ESTABLISH ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH 30-36
HRS. THIS IS TO THEN PERSIST THROUGH 72-96 HRS. AT MID
LEVELS...THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN TO A SHEAR AXIS THAT IS TO EXTEND
EAST-TO-WEST ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH
AXIS TO REMAIN NORTH OF PUERTO RICO-HISPANIOLA WHILE ALSO GRAZING
NORTHERN CUBA.

AT LOW LEVELS...THE INITIALLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SUSTAIN AN
INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN-CUBA. THIS WILL EXTEND
NORTH FROM NORTHEAST HONDURAS TO WESTERN CUBA. AS THE MID/UPPER
TROUGH PATTERN WEAKENS...THE LOW LEVEL/INDUCED TROUGH IS ALSO TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THROUGH 48-60 HRS IT WILL FILL AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE YUCATAN. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW BEST MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO CUBA. OVER THE BAHAMAS EXPECTING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM/DAY THROUGH
36HRS...AND 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY THEREAFTER. ACROSS
CUBA EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-25MM/DAY...WITH MAXIMA OF 30-60MM CONCENTRATING OVER EASTERN
CUBA EARLY IN THE CYCLE.

I'm not accustomed to the Caribbean Desk giving two separate levels of analysis. Nice!

Edited by danielw (Mon Apr 30 2012 08:32 PM)

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