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Tropical Storm Watch issued for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to W of Channel 5 Bridge, and for the Dry Tortugas #RAFAEL #FLWX
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 26 (Milton) , Major: 26 (Milton) Florida - Any: 26 (Milton) Major: 26 (Milton)
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ADV#10 11:00 am EDT
38.5N 16.2W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 999mb
Moving:
Ene at 17 mph
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TS Rafael
ADV#6 9:00 pm EDT
16.3N 77.2W
Wind: 45MPH
Pres: 996mb
Moving:
Nnw at 12 mph
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Archives 2010s >> 2012 Forecast Lounge
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danielwAdministrator
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Posts: 3527
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
10 day GFS Forecast
      Thu May 10 2012 11:11 PM

Dr Knabb at The Weather Channel has eluded to a Probable False System in the NW Caribbean Sea in the next 10 to 14 days.

The GFS model is trying to forecast a tropical system in the NW Caribbean in the next 10 days. While several of the models have a westward moving low/ trough/ thunderstorm complex in the Western Caribbean at the end of next week. The GFS extended model is trying to 'One Up' the others with a forecast vortice in the area of Jamaica and the Grand Cayman Islands.

I've looked at several model runs and indeed the signature is indicative of an organized area of thunderstorms. It is forecast to cross Cuba and move toward the Eastern Bahamas before joining another forecast Low off of the Carolina Coast. The two systems then exhibit a "Fujiwara" type effect and move off toward Nova Scotia.

Neither system is forecast below 1004 mb at this time. Rough estimate of 70 mph winds at the maximum.

Now back to ED in the Weather Center.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* 10 day GFS Forecast danielwAdministrator Thu May 10 2012 11:11 PM
. * * Re: 10 day GFS Forecast Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu May 10 2012 11:56 PM
. * * Re: 10 day GFS Forecast scottsvb   Sun May 13 2012 01:31 PM
. * * Re: 10 day GFS Forecast M.A.   Tue Jun 12 2012 07:45 AM
. * * Re: 10 day GFS Forecast danielwAdministrator   Thu Jun 14 2012 01:04 PM
. * * Re: 10 day GFS Forecast weathernet   Thu Jun 14 2012 11:23 PM
. * * Re: 10 day GFS Forecast doug   Fri Jun 15 2012 11:53 AM
. * * Re: 10 day GFS Forecast weathernet   Mon Jun 18 2012 07:52 AM
. * * Re: 10 day GFS Forecast LoisCane   Mon Jun 18 2012 12:02 PM
. * * Re: 10 day GFS Forecast doug   Wed Jun 20 2012 08:59 AM
. * * Re: 10 day GFS Forecast weathernet   Wed Jun 20 2012 02:40 PM
. * * Re: 10 day GFS Forecast weathernet   Thu Jun 21 2012 03:40 AM
. * * Re: 10 day GFS Forecast LoisCane   Thu Jun 21 2012 09:01 AM
. * * Re: 10 day GFS Forecast doug   Thu Jun 21 2012 11:00 AM
. * * Re: 10 day GFS Forecast danielwAdministrator   Thu Jun 21 2012 11:52 AM
. * * Re: 10 day GFS Forecast MichaelA   Thu Jun 21 2012 01:51 PM
. * * Re: 10 day GFS Forecast LoisCane   Thu Jun 21 2012 12:58 PM
. * * Re: 10 day GFS Forecast doug   Thu Jun 21 2012 01:41 PM
. * * Re: 10 day GFS Forecast danielwAdministrator   Thu Jun 21 2012 02:17 PM
. * * Re: 10 day GFS Forecast LoisCane   Thu Jun 21 2012 02:43 PM
. * * RECON Tomorrow danielwAdministrator   Thu Jun 21 2012 02:48 PM
. * * Re: 10 day GFS Forecast NPR16   Thu Jun 21 2012 11:47 AM
. * * Re: 10 day GFS Forecast danielwAdministrator   Thu Jun 21 2012 08:18 AM
. * * Re: 10 day GFS Forecast doug   Wed Jun 20 2012 03:10 PM

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