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Days since last Hurricane Landfall —
US Any:
569 (Milton),
US Major:
569 (Milton),
FL Any:
569 (Milton),
FL Major:
569 (Milton)
danielw
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Posts: 3527
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Re: 10 day GFS Forecast
Thu Jun 14 2012 01:04 PM
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Multiple long range models are hinting at a possible system in the Western Caribbean in the next week. Although I haven't seen any strong indications of a strong system. The CMC and GFS are hinting at a 850 mb level vortice. This would be near the 5,000 ft above sea level altitude.
Both the New Orleans,LA and Jackson,MS morning Area Forecast Discussion mention the possibility of tropical development in the W Caribbean or Bay of Campeche areas.
Further mention is in the Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion.
FXUS02 KWNH 141144
PREEPD
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
741 AM EDT THU JUN 14 2012
VALID 12Z MON JUN 18 2012 - 12Z THU JUN 21 2012
edited~danielw
CURRENT MJO ENTERING PHASES 8 AND 1 CONTINUES SHOWING FAVORABLE
VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALIES AT H200 AND H850 OVER THE EASTERN
TROPICAL PACIFIC/ CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE WRN CARRIBEAN/GLFMEX.
BROAD SCALE ANOMALOUS H850 WESTERLY FLOW IN THE TROPICAL EPAC
SUPPORTS DOWNSTREAM BROAD SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER TEH
WESTERN CARRIBEAN AND GULFMEX AIDING IN POTENTIAL TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT. MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING VARIOUS FORMS OF
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN BOTH THE EPAC AND WRN CARIB/LOWER GLFMEX
BASINS AND EXPECT THAT SOME FORM OF TROPICAL DVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR
OR BEGIN TO OCCUR LATE PERIOD OR THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
All of the MJO forecasts that I have viewed indicate some development in the Western Caribbean in the next week.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/index.php
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