cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Area of Concern: Tropical Storm Helene
Tue Aug 07 2012 01:17 AM
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A healthy tropical wave with an associated surface low pressure has been tagged as Invest 92L.
As of 12:30 AM EDT 8/7/2012, Invest 92L is located roughly 250 miles southwest of the Cape Verde islands, moving westward at about 15 MPH.
92L follows on the heels of another unusually early Cape Verde feature, Invest 90L, which went on to become Tropical Storm Florence.
Unlike 90L/Florence, Invest 92L is running along at a slightly lower latitude. For comparison:
04/0000 UTC 13.3N 27.0W T1.5/1.5 90L
06/2345 UTC 11.2N 27.0W T1.0/1.0 92L
Considering that 92L is developing at a slower pace than 90L/Florence by this longitude, that it is located slightly deeper south with high pressure solid as a brick wall to its north, odds strongly favor 92L getting further west than north over the next 3 to 5 days.
As for intensity, 92L is presently in an environment marginally conducive for gradual strengthening, and which is the most likely scenario over the next 24-48 hours. SSTs in this region are running a warm 28C, shear is a light to moderate 10-20 knots, and has actually been easing, 92L's forward speed is not ripping at its internals the way we have recently seen with Ernesto, and excessively dry air is mostly to its north.
As long as 92L stays south of roughly 14N, it stands a much better chance of gradually developing and making it farther west. Should it have a burst of development, and veer poleward, it could very well encounter much the same fate as (X) Florence, which is now a struggling remnant tropical low.
In summary, given 92L's present position, likely track, and environment, it is increasingly possible that this feature becomes yet another extremely early Atlantic tropical cyclone. (NHC has recently given it a 20% chance of developing within the next 48 hours, which could be conservative).
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