Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Tropical Storm Isaac
Fri Aug 24 2012 01:36 PM
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Update - Sunday, August 26th, 2012, 1:30AM
Tropical Storm Isaac continues to move just off the north central coast of Cuba this early morning with no change in strength (60mph), however, clouds have once again started to develop around the center. Although still somewhat disorganized, the storm is expected to intensify during the night and should move through the Florida Straits and Keys and eventually turn north toward the Florida panhandle. One of the more reliable forecast models takes the storm on a more westward trek toward Louisiana while another reliable model turns the storm more northeast toward the eastern panhandle. The Tropical Storm Watch for the west coast of the peninsula has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning and it was extended northward while the east coast watches and warnings remain unchanged. Although the latter portion of the track is a little uncertain, my initial thoughts were that Isaac would remain offshore of the west coast and no changes are yet evident to alter that thinking. Isaac remains a complex system with an uncertain future.
Original Met Blog:
At Noon today, Tropical Storm Isaac was located in the Caribbean Sea south of the Dominican Republic near 16.5N 71.0W. Isaac has moved through the eastern Caribbean Sea as a very disorganized Tropical Storm and to a certain extent it still is, however, last night the tropical cyclone showed some signs of becoming better organized. Based on Hurricane Hunter reports from a little earlier this morning, the winds near the center have increased to about 55mph with higher gusts. Movement has been to the west northwest and this motion should become more northwesterly later on Saturday under the steering influence of a developing trough along the east coast of the United States.
I anticipate that Isaac will brush the western tip of Haiti early Saturday morning as a strong tropical storm and cross the western tip of eastern Cuba (Cabo Cruz) Saturday evening as a minimal hurricane. Then across central Cuba between 80 - 81.5W and emerge on the north shore of central Cuba as a 50 knot tropical storm Sunday evening. Isaac should pass just southwest of Key West in the early hours of Monday morning as a strengthening tropical storm and again reach hurricane status well offshore of Naples on Monday. Isaac should then turn more northward and pass 60-70 miles west of Tampa early Tuesday morning as a 70-75 knot hurricane and head north toward the Florida panhandle.
Isaac has a large area of circulation and tropical storm force winds will extend quite some distance to the north and northeast of the center. Just about every part of the Florida peninsula and keys will experience tropical storm force winds at some time between Sunday evening and Tuesday evening. Blustery tropical rain squalls are likely over Florida - less frequent on the east coast and more frequent on the west coast. If the storm should encounter more of a landfall on western Haiti and eastern Cuba the intensity of the system will be significantly reduced. Everyone in and near the expected path of Isaac from the Greater Antilles to the Bahamas, the Florida peninsula and the northeast Gulf Coast should closely monitor the progress of Isaac and any NHC or local warnings, and implement necessary precautions.
ED
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Aug 26 2012 01:43 AM)
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