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Area in the MDR Atlantic being watched for later next week, 20% chance of development. Leeward Islands need to watch closely.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 18 (Beryl) , Major: 331 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 331 (Idalia) Major: 331 (Idalia)
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cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
TS Rafael Forecast Lounge
      Wed Oct 10 2012 03:07 PM



A tropical wave and as associated broad area of low pressure is being tracked as Invest 98L. This feature is located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands, with movement to the west-northwest at around 15 MPH.

Shower and thunderstorm activity with 98L remains numerous, but largely unorganized as of today, Oct 10, but it is becoming increasingly possible that they will start to come together in a meaningful way within the next few days, and NHC gives 98L a 30% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours.

This is where to put your mid to long range best guesses on potential for further development, intensity, and forecast track. Longer range model output discussions are also appropriate here.

Title updated to reflect upgrade to tropical storm.

Edited by cieldumort (Fri Oct 12 2012 09:59 PM)

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* TS Rafael Forecast Lounge cieldumort Wed Oct 10 2012 03:07 PM
. * * Re: TS Rafael Forecast Lounge cieldumort   Fri Oct 12 2012 10:09 PM
. * * Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge LoisCane   Wed Oct 10 2012 05:33 PM

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