Well, it finally looks (to me anyway) as if Arthur may be just around the corner. The area off of the southeast U.S. is getting a bit better organized (5:30 TWO) and is developing some convection of the stronger variety (per my observations). I'll say a tropical depression by late Thursday or early Friday morning. If there's nothing by then, Arthur will have to wait. At least a 45 % chance of development. As a side note, the African wave train is starting to get it's act together will some pretty strong "blobs" emerging onto the continent right at 10N. Things are starting to improve, as expected. Still, with low SSTA anomalies from the positive NAO, I don't expect a real active East Atlantic season. The activity should be closer to home this year.
Here's a real intersting poll (people into the long-term prediction things will love this one). I know, it's way out and we have more than a half a season left, but it's just for fun.
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Thoughts on system north of Bahamas.
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