Invest 90L (xBarbara) Forecast Lounge

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
248 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...
MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF MON...THEN LOW TO AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH RESPECT TO POSITION AND INTENSITY OF FORECAST SURFACE
LOW...CONTINUE TO LEAN MORE TOWARD ECMWF TRACK BUT SLOWER MOTION
OF THE GFS....

.....GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO THE BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET ARE SUGGESTING
A GENERAL TRACK TO THE NE OF THE BROAD LOW PRES AREA AFTER ABOUT
MON. THE 12 UTC GFS TENDS TO LATCH ON TO WHAT APPEARS TO BE
CONVECTION FEEDBACK FROM CONVECTION OVER THE SE GULF AND PULL IT
TO THE N TUE AND WED. THE GFS STILL APPEARS FASTER THEN THE ECMWF
THROUGH WED NIGHT...BUT IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE 10M WINDS.
THE ECMWF BECOMES FASTER IN TAKING THE LOW NE ACROSS W CENTRAL
FLORIDA BY THU. EVENING. AT THAT TIME... THE GFS STILL HOLDS BACK
THE LOW OVER THE NE GULF INTO FRI. AFTERNOON. IT THEN MOVES THE
LOW INLAND N FLORIDA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. THE UKMET
IS FARTHER TO THE W THAN THE REST OF GUIDANCE ENVELOP DURING THE
PERIOD...WHILE THE CANADIAN MODEL IS CONSISTENTLY TO STRONG IN
DEVELOPING THE LOW...BUT VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS IN TRACK THROUGH
WED NIGHT BEFORE ACCELERATING THE LOW IN A NNE DIRECTION MOVING IT
INLAND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THU AFTERNOON.

INTERESTINGLY...THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE KEEPS THE LOW IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE THROUGH DAY 5 (FRI)...WHILE THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE TAKES
IT NE TO ACROSS N FLORIDA FRI NIGHT. IN ANY EVENT AMPLE MOISTURE
OVER THE SE GULF WILL AND ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL PERSIST FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SCATTERED TOP NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
TSTMS...SOME WHICH MAY BE ATTENDED BY STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

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