This is my Facebook discussion in reference to the Model Diagnostic Discussion and Extended Forecast Discussion: Please note the last paragraph in regards to 92L - The common sense version of this bulletin is the models in the past 24 hours are now 50-50; the GFS wants to bring 92L up to Lousiana and the other half want to steer the system into the Western Gulf of Mexico; yesterday at this time the GFS was the outlier and the ECMWF (an extremely reliable global model) and the UKMET...that's the Brits and their global model had a date along the Tex/Mex coast. The GFS' 300mb upper air chart in four days places an upper level trough along the TX/LA coast...a retrogression (backwards) moving upper trough that is situated along the eastern half of the nation right now. If that scenario pans out, the GFS will verify, but what is unclear is there is a front nearby and how 92L will likely interact with the upper level trough and surface front. It doesn't appear at this time it will be a strong system but if there is one thing the SE USA doesn't need right now and that's more rain.
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Re: Area of Interest - Invest 92L - Western Caribbean Sea
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