I'll give this a 10% chance just for being in the Eastern Caribbean. Cyclonic curvature noted in the low and mid level clouds. Currently a moderate sized convective complex is in the NE sector of the complex and has what appears to be something close to a CHT- convective hot tower. CHT's are basically turbochargers or power cells in developed tropical cyclones. I've been watching this system for several hours after local sunset and it seems to be holding together, to a degree.
Moderately dry air to the west of the system and dry air to the north of the system.
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE AUG 20 2013-edited~danielw
....IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N84W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 15N76W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS HIGH ENHANCED THE CONVECTION E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR... CONVECTION OVER THE MONSOON TROUGH TO CONTINUE...AND FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION.
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