Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Hurricane Season is Here
Sun Sep 08 2013 02:21 PM
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Update - Saturday, September 14, 10:50AM EDT
Invest 93L is now powerful Tropical Storm Ingrid.
Ingrid has been drifting mostly north to east for the better part of the last 24 hours, and the most recent hurricane hunter missions show that the cyclone is very nearly a hurricane. The official NHC forecast does call for Ingrid to become and maintain as a hurricane up through landfall along the northeastern Mexican coast.
Coastal Flood Watches & Warnings are up for southeast Texas.
Elsewhere, Humberto has become devoid of deep convection, and is now a post-tropical low, but is expected to enter a favorable region in about two to three days, and possibly become a hurricane again early next week.
Ciel
Update - Thursday, September 12, 2:05AM EDT
Hurricane season is at long last definitely here.
Closest to home, Invest 93L continues to slowly organize, and it now appears highly likely that it will reemerge over water, after having crossed the Yucatan. Once back out over the open waters of the very warm southwestern Gulf of Mexico, 93L could become a tropical cyclone within hours.
Interests along the eastern Mexican coastlines and ships at sea should take note for the possibility of a named storm before the weekend, but what is more worrisome, is that it looks as if 93L may slow down later in the period just offshore/just inland in the far southwestern GOM, and perhaps even make one or more complete loops. Residents of Campeche, Tabasco, Veracruz, Peubla, and/or their neighboring states, may experience several days of heavy rains with the threat of a widespread inland flooding and mudslide event.
For more on Invest 93L, and to share your own thoughts on what may ultimately come of it later this week, visit the 93L Forecast Lounge.
Tropical storm Gabrielle isn't looking very healthy tonight, and may even degenerate into a remnant low later today. However, Hurricane Humberto, having just become a hurricane a mere 3 hours before it would have made history as the latest known formation date of an Atlantic basin hurricane, could also stick around several days, with some models even suggesting it might maintain as a hurricane for quite some time. Presently, Humberto appears to be strengthening overnight, and it now seems that Humberto even has a chance of becoming a major. Thankfully, Humberto of 2013 is not anywhere close to where Humberto of 2007 was. It is an odd coincidence that they formed at complete opposite ends of the Atlantic basin, but then odd has been quite a theme this year.
Ciel
Update - Tuesday, September 10, 3:55AM EDT
At long last, it's starting to look a lot more like a normal Atlantic Hurricane Season, which is not necessarily a good thing given we are now right at the climatological peak.
In the far eastern Atlantic, Humberto is closing in on being a hurricane. These cyclones way out at sea are notoriously difficult to assess, given the dearth of available readings, but at the very least, it is already one very healthy tropical storm with favorable conditions for further strengthening.
Old Gabrielle looks to be getting a second wind, as it seems the remnants have organized sufficiently enough that it will be renamed a tropical storm this morning. Gabrielle is forecast to move northward, possibly taking it right over Bermuda mid-week, and Tropical Storm Warnings will likely be issued for Bermuda in short order.
Closer to home, and potentially of far greater concern, is a disturbance presently in the northwestern Caribbean that is now given a 60% chance to become a tropical cyclone by Sunday, per NHC. Texas may really want to keep an eye on this one, as any disturbance that develops in the western Gulf during the heart of the season is automatically a candidate for trouble.
Ciel
Bermuda Weather Reports
Update - Monday, September 9, 9:25AM EDT
TD#9 was upgraded to TS Humberto - a minimal Tropical Storm moving to the west just south of the southern Cape Verde Islands with a Tropical Storm Warning for those southern islands. Additional intensification likely as the system moves west and then takes a turn more to the north northwest in a couple of days.
ED
Update - Sunday, September 8, 6:51PM EDT
NHC has upgraded the Invest area between the Cape Verde Islands and the West African coast to Tropical Depression #9 based on better convective organization. Its a bit of a surprise move since this becomes one of those rather uncommon 25kt TDs, however, the IR satellite loop through 08/2230Z does suggest that the convective development has indeed increased to the east southeast of the center. Movement of TD9 should be west to west northwest for the next couple of days with slow intensification likely.
ED
Original Post - Sunday, September 8, 2:21PM EDT
Lots of tropical waves - but no named storms as the climatological peak of the season (September 10th) is almost here. It has happened before, but its really rare when a two-week period at or near the peak has no named storms in the Atlantic Basin. A check of the past 60 years provided the following results:
1959: 8/20 - 9/8 20 days with no named storms
1968: 8/18 - 9/10 23 days with no named storms
1994: 8/24 - 9/8 16 days with no named storms
Although not quite as close to the seasonal peak of activity, there was also the uncommonly strong El Nino year of 1997 when after a Hurricane named Danny, the named-storm season shut down from July 28th through September 2nd. This current period without a named tropical cyclone started on August 27th.
A strong wave, Invest 91L, emerged off the west coast of Africa yesterday and it does have good potential for additional development in a couple of days when westerly windshear to its immediate north is expected to decrease. The system is expected to move to the west northwest over the next few days.
The remnants of former TS Gabrielle are still active well to the north of the Dominican Republic. This area has been redesignated as Invest 92L under the NHC title of 'Disturbance Gabrielle' and has a modest chance for redevelopment in a few days. If it does redevelop a north northeast to northeast movement is anticipated, but if it does not regenerate some of the showery remains could move more to the west northwest in the lower level flow.
Two other areas of some convective organization are noted: 1) In the central Atlantic a weak system (formerly assigned as Invest 98L) could have a slim chance for development while 2) a new Invest area might be eventually assigned to an active area in the west-central Gulf of Mexico that would seem to have a slight chance for some further organization/development.
ED
{{StormLinks|Humberto|09|9|2013|09|Humberto}}
{{StormLinks|Ingrid|10|10|2013|10|Ingrid}}
Edited by cieldumort (Sat Sep 14 2013 10:58 AM)
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