Karen has essentially remained stationary for the last several hours and that lack of motion...coupled with increasing upper-level winds ahead of an eastward-moving deep-layer trough...has increased the shear significantly across the cyclone. The result is that convection has weakened and become displaced well to the east and southeast of the low-level circulation center. Satellite classifications from TAFB supported keeping Karen as a borderline tropical storm at 00z...but the lack of convection near the center since then requires a downgrade to depression status at the 03z advisory time. Given that the vertical wind shear is forecast to get even stronger over the next 2 days...re-strengthening back to tropical storm status is not likely...especially since the mid-levels of the troposphere will become increasingly drier
Not going back to a storm will be lucky to hold onto a depression
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Re: Tropical Karen forms in Southern Gulf, Hurricane & Tropical Storm Watches Issued
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