Today marks the start of the Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season. Atlantic Outlooks also begin today.
Days since last Hurricane Landfall —
US Any:
595 (Milton),
US Major:
595 (Milton),
FL Any:
595 (Milton),
FL Major:
595 (Milton)
doug
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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Re: Are Seasonal Forecasts Worthwhile
Tue Nov 05 2013 01:28 PM
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I thought I remember that last year there was some discussion of Colorado State dropping the publishing of the seasonal forecast due to reliability probabilities being lower that expected. I think that is proving to be the case, but school is still out. There are so many variables such as a gaseous atmosphere and a liquid sea and a complete understanding of them is still a work in progress. Probabilities that range a little higher than 50/50 which is near where this part of the science is, I think, may have some utilitarian value in planning if only to trend toward caution in the face of a threat to public safety. But on a personal level it is nothing more than an interesting participatory sport. Kind of fun.
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doug
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