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Archives 2010s >> 2013 Storm Forum

Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)

Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL

Outlook for 2013 - Final Results
Mon Nov 25 2013 12:54 PM

Well not exactly one of out better years for forecasting seasonal totals - matter of fact, it was our poorest performance but we were certainly not alone in our demise. The average seasonal forecast by CFHC Users was 17/9/4 and the actual result was 13/2/0 for a total error of -15.
TSR 15/8/3 = -11 and CSU 18/9/4 = -16

2013 was a slightly above average season for total named storms but way below average for the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes - and this was not an El Nino year. Using our normal scoring scheme, this is how well we did (or perhaps it shows how well we didn't

):

0 to -2 Outstanding - 0 forecasts
-3 to -4 Excellent - 0 forecasts
-5 to -6 Good - 0 forecasts
-7 to -8 Fair - 1 forecast
-9 to -15+ Hmmm - all the rest (30 forecasts)

The lower level of activity compared to the past three years and the minimal number of hurricanes combined to wipe out every forecast. The best score this year was B.C.Francis with -8. Joeyfl, MikeC and I all had -9 and all of those scores would normally be considered as a busted forecast. If I only scored the number of named storms, I was lucky enough to join CarolinaGurl and Joeyfl and hit the exact total of 13. B.C.Francis and gsand were close with 14. The forecast extremes ranged from 10/7/2 (-10) to 24/19/9 (-37).

Thanks to all of you who joined in the fun of our annual forecast activity - we'll try to do a little better next year.
Cheers,
ED

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Outlook for 2013	Ed Dunham	Mon Nov 25 2013 12:54 PM
Re: Outlook for 2013	Ed Dunham	Fri May 31 2013 08:34 PM
Outlook for 2013 - Final Results	Ed Dunham	Mon Nov 25 2013 12:54 PM
Re: Outlook for 2013	vpbob21	Fri May 31 2013 05:58 PM
Re: Outlook for 2013	Doombot!	Fri May 31 2013 05:31 PM
Re: Outlook for 2013	IMTechspec	Thu May 30 2013 07:10 PM
Re: Outlook for 2013	Lamar-Plant City	Thu May 30 2013 10:04 PM
Re: Outlook for 2013	Bloodstar	Fri May 31 2013 01:04 PM
Re: Outlook for 2013	Lamar-Plant City	Fri May 31 2013 01:42 PM
Re: Outlook for 2013	DMFischer	Thu May 30 2013 05:18 PM
Re: Outlook for 2013	cieldumort	Mon May 27 2013 02:27 PM
Re: Outlook for 2013	cieldumort	Tue May 28 2013 01:53 AM
Re: Outlook for 2013	Ed Dunham	Sun May 26 2013 12:40 AM
Re: Outlook for 2013	JimB	Sun May 26 2013 09:28 PM
Re: Outlook for 2013	Joeyfl	Sun May 26 2013 09:39 PM
Re: Outlook for 2013	ftlaudbob	Mon May 27 2013 01:59 PM
Re: Outlook for 2013	SchexStorm	Mon May 27 2013 07:04 PM
Re: Outlook for 2013	gsand	Sun May 12 2013 09:19 AM
Re: Outlook for 2013	Wingman51	Mon May 13 2013 11:14 AM
Re: Outlook for 2013	weatherhead	Mon May 13 2013 09:00 PM
Re: Outlook for 2013	CarolinaGurl	Tue May 21 2013 09:10 AM
Re: Outlook for 2013	stormtiger	Tue May 21 2013 09:53 AM
Re: Outlook for 2013	Kigeliakitten	Sat May 11 2013 04:12 PM
Re: Outlook for 2013	beachcrafts	Thu May 02 2013 01:32 PM
Re: Outlook for 2013	rmbjoe1954	Wed Mar 20 2013 12:37 PM
Re: Outlook for 2013	Ed Dunham	Fri Mar 08 2013 12:09 AM
Re: Outlook for 2013	Ed Dunham	Fri Apr 05 2013 11:23 AM
Re: Outlook for 2013	Ed Dunham	Fri May 03 2013 12:13 PM
Re: Outlook for 2013	GlenJohnson	Sat May 04 2013 10:14 PM
Re: Outlook for 2013	Hurricane29	Sat May 11 2013 12:44 PM
Re: Outlook for 2013	MikeC	Tue May 28 2013 07:52 AM
Re: Outlook for 2013	Fletch	Tue May 28 2013 11:34 AM
Re: Outlook for 2013	dolfinatic	Tue May 28 2013 12:12 PM
Re: Outlook for 2013	Storm Hunter	Tue May 28 2013 10:30 PM
Re: Outlook for 2013	eulogia	Wed May 29 2013 07:19 PM
Re: Outlook for 2013	Ed Dunham	Wed Apr 10 2013 10:34 AM
Re: Outlook for 2013	rmbjoe1954	Wed Apr 10 2013 12:05 PM
Re: Outlook for 2013	Ed Dunham	Wed Apr 10 2013 10:21 PM
Re: Outlook for 2013	doug	Wed May 01 2013 12:30 PM
Re: Outlook for 2013	MichaelA	Wed May 01 2013 04:22 PM
Re: Outlook for 2013	JoshuaK	Sat Apr 27 2013 09:04 AM
Re: Outlook for 2013	B.C.Francis	Mon Mar 11 2013 04:35 PM
Re: Outlook for 2013	Ed Dunham	Tue Mar 12 2013 07:51 AM

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