Since there is some difficulty with obtaining the latest RECON data, here is the Vortex message compliments of tropicalatlantic.com:
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 1st day of the month at 18:48Z Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307) Storm Number & Year: 01L in 2014 Storm Name: Arthur (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 2 Observation Number: 05 A. Time of Center Fix: 1st day of the month at 18:23:20Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27°42'N 79°18'W (27.7N 79.3W) (View map) B. Center Fix Location: 83 miles (134 km) between the NNE and NE (34°) from West Palm Beach, FL, USA. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 715m (2,346ft) at 925mb D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 37kts (~ 42.6mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 33 nautical miles (38 statute miles) to the NW (321°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 56° at 34kts (From between the NE and ENE at ~ 39.1mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 33 nautical miles (38 statute miles) to the NW (321°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1003mb (29.62 inHg) - Extrapolated I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 754m (2,474ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 760m (2,493ft) K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Not Available M. Eye Shape: Not Available N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 925mb O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded... Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 61kts (~ 70.2mph) at 1:30 Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb Remarks Section - Additional Remarks... / 44 NM 18:38:30Z POSSIBLE EYEWALL SE-SW
The NHC center location is still good. I think the cloud mass to the south of the center is still displaced because of some lingering northerly shear although it seems to be relaxing at the moment and the northern half of the storm is showing better definition. Having said all of that and remembering that storm center fixes (from which movement is derived) are only produced every six hours when no warning is in effect, I'm fairly certain the the movement over the past few hours has been more to the WNW rather than the NW. The MLB long range radar loop tends to confirm this.
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Re: Tropical Storm Arthur forms East of Florida
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