cieldumort
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 2115
Loc: Austin, Tx
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ExTrop Patricia Off To Great Lakes
Fri Oct 16 2015 12:17 PM
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Image below taken Fri Morning Oct 16, 2015
A broad area of increasingly favorable conditions for tropical cyclone development is taking hold in the southwestern Atlantic and extreme far eastern Pacific, over and either side of an area extending from the Yucatan to Central America.
As of 10 AM Oct 16, this region featured an expanding area of scattered and mostly unorganized showers and thunderstorms, with several tropical waves, two tracked wave pouches (51L, 52E), one low center, and a stationary frontal boundary to their northeast. In the mid-levels, troughing is co-located with the wave in the western Caribbean. In the upper-levels, broad anti-cyclonic flow aloft is centered over the northwestern Caribbean.
For over a week, models have been honing in on this general area for development, and although the exact timing of development has been pushed further out with successive runs, the conditions foreseen by these runs are now mostly starting to appear, and it looks increasingly possible that at least one or two tropical and/or hybrid cyclones will form somewhere between the far eastern Pacific to the western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico, within the next seven days.
None of these features are yet Invest tagged, but if and when they do, this thread will be updated with the Invest tag numbers. It is worth noting that there is an above normal chance for a cross-over from the far east Pac into the western Atlantic, perhaps around the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and so should a far eastern Pacific disturbance form that has robust model support for doing so, it will be tagged and followed in this thread given a then likelihood of being re-tagged or re-numbered.
The next name on the list in the Atlantic is Kate.
Title edited to reflect changes of status
Edited by cieldumort (Tue Oct 27 2015 05:17 AM)
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