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Gaston Becomes Hurricane 99L Still a Concern
      Thu Aug 25 2016 06:25 AM

8:00AM EDT Update 26 August 2016
Chances are way down in the short term for 99L, but it is still being tracked. Impact chances for florida are very low.

With first morning visible satellite the only circulation I can find at the low levels is between Long Island and Crooked Island in the Bahamas, some convection is firing around it, but it may be short lived, as is the entire system. However, there is a chance it can linger on well into next week in the Gulf, so it still should be monitored.



4:00PM EDT Update 25 August 2016

Chances are rapidly decreasing for as much of an impact on south Florida due to a struggling system and the models backing off much of anything. Parts of south Florida or the keys will likely get some rain and a bit of breeze from the system based on the current runs, but likelihood of much beyond that is slim.

It is prudent to keep monitoring it in case anything changes as this area of the Atlantic is prone to surprises.

There still exists more of a risk for the Gulf coast, so folks from the west coast of Florida through Louisiana should still monitor it closely.

7:30AM EDT Update 25 August 2016



If 99L never becomes something especially serious, we may have the Dominican Republic to thank, with its devastatingly high and rugged terrain.

At 0600, a ship traveled near or through the core of 99L, experiencing up to 70 knot winds (80 MPH), with pressure down to 29.65, falling rapidly. During this time, 99L looked stunning on IR satellite, with radar out of Puerto Rico also suggestive of a tight LLC. Since this time however, the incipient tropical cyclone has been getting more hung up over this island. Additionally, the system is getting whacked by some shear from an upper level low to its north, while what we have referred to as its "Advance Low Level Circ" has also been siphoning off its vorticity.

If 99L can survive in one piece after its visit to the DR, then it may have it in it to attempt to rapidly organize once back out over very toasty waters, and likely in a more favorable upper air environment, than now. This scenario is definitely possible, given its tenacity.

Should it break into bits, then it may have to start back over, once again, almost from scratch and end up being more of a blustery rain maker over the next few days - although with a flooding threat.
-Ciel

Original Entry

Gaston has become the Atlantic's third hurricane of 2016, but is expected to remain out to sea, it is forecast to become a strong category 2 or possibly 3 hurricane later in the run.

99L remains the primary focus of most, with the center now roughly near 20.6 N 69.6W, still a disorganized mess with the primary circulation having convection on the south and east sides. Models are still mixed on strength, from weak wave to hurricane, but the general idea is a continued west northwest motion through the Bahamas and possibly into Florida and reemerging in the Gulf. The exact specifics are unfortunately too soon to tell, but Central Florida to the Keys needs to continue to watch closely. And if it makes it into the Gulf the area of concern would spread.



Today is a day of transition away from the Caribbean and dealing with the convection being over Hispaniola while the center is well north, the secondary vortex that seemed to pop up yesterday afternoon appears to be getting destroyed by the island of Hispaniola, which will leave the overall system in bit of a mess today. The big question is if and when it recovers, it has very hot water in the Bahamas to travel over before any potential Florida landfall, and this is where the anxiety lies. We are watching to see if and how well the system recovers from passing north of Hispaniola and if convection can be sustained on all sides of the center of the system. If convection begins to fire around the primary center this will indicate a window for strengthening that would impact how strong it would be in the Western Bahamas and Florida.

The danger being a intensifying system as it made landfall, which is notoriously difficult to predict in that area off South Florida. There is no clear indication that will happen, but none that it will not currently either. It really depends on what state the storm is when it reaches the area of the Central Bahamas. Today development is not expected much, if things happen earlier than expected today that would be concerning, if they don't it leaves it open until Tomorrow or Saturday. This is a very frustrating situation for emergency management as well, because it is difficult to prepare for this type of unknown, it may remain weak and not much happens, or it could rapidly intensify right before landfall. It's a waiting game to search for signals on either end.

Simple or short term preps (extra supplies) are a good idea now, larger preps along the coast are probably worth waiting until the system is in the Central Bahamas and if and when indications of a system getting its act together are there. It could very well fall apart today like some of the models suggest.

Cuban Radar Recording for 99L
Long floater sat Recording of 99L


{{StormLinks|99L|99|8|2016|99|99L}}

{{StormLinks|91L|91|9|2016|91|91L (Partially Ex-Fiona)}}

{{StormLinks|Gaston|07|7|2016|07|Gaston}}

{{BahamasMedia}}

{{StormCarib}}

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Gaston Becomes Hurricane 99L Still a Concern MikeCAdministrator Thu Aug 25 2016 06:25 AM
. * * Re: Gaston Becomes Hurricane 99L Still a Concern Hawkeyewx   Sat Aug 27 2016 01:50 AM
. * * Re: Gaston Becomes Hurricane 99L Still a Concern cieldumort   Fri Aug 26 2016 02:13 PM
. * * Re: Gaston Becomes Hurricane 99L Still a Concern Steve H1   Fri Aug 26 2016 01:51 PM
. * * Re: Gaston Becomes Hurricane 99L Still a Concern doug   Fri Aug 26 2016 01:43 PM
. * * Re: Gaston Becomes Hurricane 99L Still a Concern MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 26 2016 01:35 PM
. * * Re: Gaston Becomes Hurricane 99L Still a Concern MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 26 2016 01:33 PM
. * * Re: Gaston Becomes Hurricane 99L Still a Concern doug   Fri Aug 26 2016 01:14 PM
. * * Re: Gaston Becomes Hurricane 99L Still a Concern Owlguin   Fri Aug 26 2016 12:30 PM
. * * Re: Gaston Becomes Hurricane 99L Still a Concern Tazmanian93   Fri Aug 26 2016 11:30 AM
. * * Re: Gaston Becomes Hurricane 99L Still a Concern MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 26 2016 11:27 AM
. * * Re: Gaston Becomes Hurricane 99L Still a Concern MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 26 2016 11:15 AM
. * * Re: Gaston Becomes Hurricane 99L Still a Concern craigm   Fri Aug 26 2016 11:01 AM
. * * Re: Gaston Becomes Hurricane 99L Still a Concern MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 26 2016 10:58 AM
. * * Re: Gaston Becomes Hurricane 99L Still a Concern MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 26 2016 10:18 AM
. * * Re: Gaston Becomes Hurricane 99L Still a Concern MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 26 2016 10:03 AM
. * * Re: Gaston Becomes Hurricane 99L Still a Concern Hawkeyewx   Fri Aug 26 2016 10:01 AM
. * * Re: Gaston Becomes Hurricane 99L Still a Concern Robert   Fri Aug 26 2016 08:35 AM
. * * Re: Gaston Becomes Hurricane 99L Still a Concern MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 26 2016 08:04 AM
. * * Re: Gaston Becomes Hurricane 99L Still a Concern MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 25 2016 09:41 PM
. * * Re: Gaston Becomes Hurricane 99L Still a Concern Lamar-Plant City   Thu Aug 25 2016 09:22 PM
. * * Re: Gaston Becomes Hurricane 99L Still a Concern craigm   Thu Aug 25 2016 08:58 PM
. * * Re: Gaston Becomes Hurricane 99L Still a Concern Hawkeyewx   Thu Aug 25 2016 04:30 PM
. * * Re: Gaston Becomes Hurricane 99L Still a Concern Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu Aug 25 2016 12:15 PM
. * * Re: Gaston Becomes Hurricane 99L Still a Concern MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 25 2016 10:43 AM
. * * Re: Gaston Becomes Hurricane 99L Still a Concern Robert   Thu Aug 25 2016 09:59 AM
. * * Re: Gaston Becomes Hurricane 99L Still a Concern Hawkeyewx   Thu Aug 25 2016 09:50 AM
. * * Re: Gaston Becomes Hurricane 99L Still a Concern doug   Thu Aug 25 2016 09:32 AM
. * * Re: Gaston Becomes Hurricane 99L Still a Concern MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 25 2016 09:30 AM
. * * Re: Gaston Becomes Hurricane 99L Still a Concern MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 25 2016 08:01 AM

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