a'right. the dvorak on the rated system is up to 1.5 as of 1745z, but its convection and low level center are a bit disjointed. theyre sort of wanting to move northeast at different angles, with the convection now clinging to the southern edge and looking quite healthy. nhc hasnt classified it just yet, theyre playing it safe, just alluding to the fact that they may choose to later. i was around half confident earlier, now just a little lower... just dont see this thing getting much better organized.
the hatteras system is looking better than i expected, with a good are of low pressure at the mid levels but little at the surface. a narrow upper trough has dug in to the east ahead of a burgeoning upper high, and is bringing in southwesterly shear.. i'm thinking that it will turn around to northeasterly shear by tomorrow. this is the next upper system that will be rolled under and retrograde down across the gulf. the system is slowly drifting NE.. expect it to turn north later.
nhc isnt bothering with the northeasternmost system.
then theyve also cared to mention the surface trough setting up in the NE gulf, in relation to the upcoming cutaway upper trough. it's weak and not near organization, but will take a few days to move west across the gulf. so basically, all of a sudden, several things of interest are going on.
didnt expect anything to happen until late july, now several things are threatening that idea.
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