A little udpate to my 13/8/3 post. We were discussing that over on the storm forum. I gotta get used to the news and the forum and where the action is going to be.
As I process more information, I think there are five main focus points for possible landfalls this year:
1) Florida - South Florida appears to be a target from the E, ESE and SE. The panhandle appears to be a target from the SW and SE. Depending on oscilations of the Bermuda Ridge, the flow should be at FL from the SE, and ridge should act as a block when its western edge is across FL, as a steering mechanism into the panhandle if when it's periphery is not beyond 85-88 degrees west.
2) Caribbean - What can you say? With so much area, at least one of the islands is bound to take a pounding.
3) US East Coast - whenever we switch to troughy periods, they're always in the game.
4) AL/MS Coast - As the Bermuda Ridge ebbs back easterly, as it will at times in late August through September, someone needs to paint a bullseye on this 160+/- mile stretch of coast.
5) Western LA/Upper Texas Coasts- If the western ridge pattern sets up as Bastardi has predicted - off of the Baja, then the Northerly and Northwesterly flow should be far enough inland to allow for a path of weakness between Lafayette and Galveston. Any mid-season storms (July, August, September) that make their way into the Gulf, have as good of a shot to hit here as anywhere. This, of course, assumes a block across FL and formation in the BoC and/or southern Gulf.
But I'm not ready to make my official landfall predictions yet. That will come on 6/1 or 6/2.
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