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MikeCAdministrator
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TD FOUR Lounge
      Sat Jul 01 2017 06:44 PM

This it the lounge to discuss models, and guesses as to where the wave currently in the east Atlantic will go and how strong it may get. The topic will be renamed if it becomes an invest or named storm.

As of 2PM on July 1st the chances for development from the National Hurricane are 40%.

Only the GFS is showing strong development right now, and misses it to the north of the Leeward Islands by a fair margin (18Z) and then near the Bahamas on July 13th. A category 4 hurricane over Jacksonville on the 16th, and and another landfall near Savannah, GA on the 17th.

The Euro has it weaker, although does develop it also, but keeps it well north of the leeward islands of the Caribbean as well.

None of the other models really develop it, which is good news now.

Based on the current trends it may develop, but is unlikely to directly impact land areas, however it's worth watching as the GFS does have it over or close to the Bahamas in the long range, then a hurricane into Jacksonville on July 16th. Caveat for anyone new, models at that long of range are typically extremely inaccurate, but it does indicate that the system is worth watching.

As it crosses and when/if the system actually forms (and when other models start to latch onto it) is what to watch for. Persistence is the key with tropical systems. Until then the model runs are a curiosity.

Invest 94L has become TD FOUR and the title has been updated accordingly
-Ciel

Edited by cieldumort (Wed Jul 05 2017 11:10 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* TD FOUR Lounge MikeCAdministrator Sat Jul 01 2017 06:44 PM
. * * Re: East Atlantic Wave MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jul 02 2017 07:52 AM
. * * Re: East Atlantic Wave MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jul 02 2017 09:25 PM
. * * Re: East Atlantic Wave MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jul 03 2017 06:38 AM
. * * Re: East Atlantic Wave MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jul 03 2017 02:45 PM
. * * Re: East Atlantic Wave SouthGAwx   Mon Jul 03 2017 03:25 PM
. * * Re: East Atlantic Wave MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jul 03 2017 07:30 PM
. * * Re: East Atlantic Wave MikeCAdministrator   Tue Jul 04 2017 06:52 AM
. * * Re: East Atlantic Wave MikeCAdministrator   Tue Jul 04 2017 02:16 PM
. * * Re: East Atlantic Wave MikeCAdministrator   Wed Jul 05 2017 08:23 AM
. * * Re: East Atlantic Wave MikeCAdministrator   Thu Jul 06 2017 01:09 PM
. * * Re: East Atlantic Wave MikeCAdministrator   Fri Jul 07 2017 08:05 AM
. * * Re: East Atlantic Wave Prospero   Fri Jul 07 2017 08:53 PM
. * * Re: East Atlantic Wave MikeCAdministrator   Sat Jul 08 2017 09:06 AM
. * * Re: East Atlantic Wave MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jul 10 2017 07:32 AM
. * * Re: East Atlantic Wave MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jul 10 2017 10:07 AM
. * * Re: East Atlantic Wave JoshuaK   Mon Jul 10 2017 05:25 PM
. * * Re: East Atlantic Wave MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jul 10 2017 11:13 AM
. * * Re: East Atlantic Wave MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jul 10 2017 11:41 AM
. * * Re: East Atlantic Wave MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jul 10 2017 02:22 PM
. * * Re: East Atlantic Wave SouthGAwx   Mon Jul 03 2017 01:38 PM

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