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Wet weekend and next weekend, but tropical development very unlikely.
Days since last Hurricane Landfall — US Any: 595 (Milton), US Major: 595 (Milton), FL Any: 595 (Milton), FL Major: 595 (Milton)
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Archives 2010s >> 2017 Forecast Lounge
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MikeCAdministrator
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Posts: 4819
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: 95L Lounge
      Tue Jul 18 2017 06:57 AM

Morning models struggle to find Don other than the GFS Parallel and the hurricane models HWRF and HMON (Replacement for the now retired GFDL).

The range of difference in the hurricane models is from open wave to category 2 hurricane (after it passes over the Windwards). If the system reaches 12.5N or higher conditions are hostile enough to make the open wave more likely, if it manages to stay at a low altitude it has a shot at hurricane strength. Either way Don (and the wave behind it) are likely to be short lived.

Today however, the Windwards should be watching for it approaching from he east later tonight. The small size means some folks will barely feel it while others may be hit by a intense bit of storm which are very difficult to predict.

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* TS DON Lounge cieldumort Tue Jul 18 2017 06:57 AM
. * * Re: 95L Lounge cieldumort   Mon Jul 17 2017 01:28 PM
. * * Re: 95L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jul 17 2017 11:56 PM
. * * Re: 95L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Jul 18 2017 06:57 AM

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